Thursday, August 21, 2008

試水代表測市

運動員受傷屬正常不過的事,碰上大賽卻無法參加才最可惜,像姚明打NBA時,提早收咧,安排做手術,最終趕及復元兼助國籃打入八強。欄王劉翔則選擇退出收場,令人憂慮其廣告身價大跌。表面看,廣告商揀炙手可熱的體育明星做代言人,原來亦有一定風險。

不過,今次劉翔傷出卻賺人熱淚。據電視收視市場研究機構CSM統計顯示,劉翔傷出當日有1億觀眾目睹這個悲壯的場面,收視最高達8.25%,創奧運開賽以來午間時段最高收視紀錄。最落力推廣的奧運贊助商頭三位,即可口可樂、伊利和聯想(992),其實都有份找劉翔做代言人,見到這種形勢,他們又怎捨得放棄劉翔呢?

至於內地政府也一樣,又怎會不打救一沉不起的股市和樓市,故先找來摩根大通中國區董事總經理、研究部主管及首席中國經濟師龔方雄負責做傳聲筒,實行拋出最高達4,000億元人民幣的救市方案,去測試市場,若果反應好,可以陸續推出措施,相反又可以最終不了了之,因為並非用官方渠道散播消息嘛!

試想像,去年外匯管理局那招港股直通車措施,簡直是尷尬到了極點,好像我們的曾特首推出措施般,未有全盤考慮而造成反效果。

至於龔方雄本身負責統籌摩通中國區證券及經濟研究等工作,擁有美國沃頓商學院金融經濟學博士學位、費城坦普爾大學物理學碩士學位,以及北京大學兩個學位,來頭認真不小,更是05年7月人民幣匯率改革公布時,獲當局知會的外資經濟師之一,加上經常成為傳媒採訪對象,難怪成為最佳的試水代表。

其實,美國次按風暴,早已吹散外圍經濟,日本經濟陷衰退邊緣,歐洲多個國家如法國和德國等第二季經濟增長按季亦出現負數,令歐元區經濟第二季收縮0.2%,故此近來美元匯價轉強,可能不是美國經濟好轉,只是歐洲和其他國家經濟轉差所致而已。

面對這種情況,內地出口恐勢危,必定要找方法保持增長,利用政策刺激內部經濟實屬慣常做法,況且通脹回落,可以落藥救市,即使放鬆一點,已經可帶起很強勁的複式增長效應,但拉遠一點看,能否兼成為全球經濟重拾活力的火車頭,則認真具挑戰性。

見到港股和內地股市應聲彈高,可見好友等待反擊多時,雖然基本因素未變,但像樣的反彈確實存在,但不宜全身進攻。那麼,甚麼股份具潛質呢?不妨看龔方雄早前向傳媒話,可以留意一些跟消費、服務業有關的行業,比如旅遊業及其他相關產業,但真的不知道,究竟是他有內幕消息、抑或僅是他的分析。

(8月21日刊於《am730》)

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