Thursday, August 07, 2008

香檳酒升起的泡

見到偉大的父母,為了子女學業前途著想,竟然冒著8號風球,在狂風暴雨中露宿一夜,簡直叫人欽佩。儘管機制已講明,非以先到先得方式錄取,仍無阻排隊等開門的決心。這些絕對是一種非理性行徑,但在投資市場上,何嘗不是存在這種情況?以為有金執,就爭先湧入買貨,根本未作分析就行動,卻又不懂得全身而退,最終在過程中受盡苦頭,更可能沒有翻身之日,故此做決定前,請先看清楚實際情況,否則像那些風雨中的父母般,白捱一個晚上,唯一慶幸或不同的是,這些家長未有受傷而回罷了。

言歸正傳,今年股市脫腳,要跑贏大市確實不易,作為小小投資者,走去買期油,恐怕不易入市,如果買両金的話,相信亦可勝一仗,最低限度是表現優於整體通脹,但今年6月本港豬肉價格比去年升48%,要勝過個別範疇就認真不易,莫非走去炒瘦肉(lean hog)期貨以作對沖?

若將喜好化作投資,兼賺得不俗回報的話,肯定更加開心。還記得禤中怡提過的紅酒指數嗎?估不到今年主角卻非紅酒,而是喜慶節日大開特開的香檳(Champagne)也。原來將25種香檳組成的Liv-ex Champagne25指數按6月底走勢看,在過去12個月已累升27%,比以高級紅酒組成的Liv-ex100指數僅升8%的表現為佳,當然股市表現就更難作比較,若以長線看,原來自04年起計已累積上升138%!

同酒界朋友談起,他認為香檳指數能夠向上,就如股市炒相對比較的走勢,可能紅酒指數在過去一段時間被炒上,令香檳指數相對落後,引來投資者注意,形成炒落後情況。另一個原因,當然是需求問題,其中或許與天氣有關,他說飲香檳和飲紅酒不同,想飲香檳,就要早在兩個小時前,將香檳雪凍兩個小時,方可飲用,但切勿擺放在雪櫃太久,否則味道會改變。由於天氣酷熱,若果享用香檳,更加透心涼,自不然成為消暑恩物。此外,香檳成為佳饌良伴,香港的五星級酒店更推出一餐動輒以逾萬元計的香檳晚餐,皆因用靚酒也。

供應方面,在法國香檳區出產的方可冠以「香檳」,產能自然難大增,其他地區出產的只能叫有氣的酒,級數當然難挑戰正宗香檳。因香檳多作飲用,一些靚年份出品,儲起來的比例肯定比紅酒為低,更見矜貴。酒界朋友提醒,香檳始終多在開心日子才飲用,與紅酒無論開心,或心情非佳時刻也可享用不同。此外,這類投資始終屬小眾市場,對比紅酒,香檳日後套現能力也需考慮,更重要的是,究竟是之前市況太好,會否引發其中的泡沫呢?

不過,見到陳方安生去年勝出立法會補選後,手拿價值逾千元的Dom Perignon「吹喇叭」,確又真是暴殄天物,或許多花點錢,買靚酒杯慢慢品嘗,效果會更佳。

(8月7日刊於《am730》)

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