Tuesday, July 29, 2008

嚇人的業績

見到上市公司「讓我歡喜讓我憂」,因為有預報盈利有喜訊的,亦有早報業績差的,但有些卻採取直至死線最後一刻,才公布實際情況,讓股東嚇一大驚。

踏入7月底,很多於3月底作年結的上市公司終需要見家翁,而早前已提出,小心有份投資股票的上市公司業績,會受到股票下跌的嚴重影響,估不到醜婦陸續掀開面紗後,無不令人嗟嘆。

好像剛供股完畢的民豐控股(279),公布截至08年3月底全年業績,虧損竟然高達4億元,比07年度虧損的2.1億元,足足擴大了90%之多,當中最大虧損部分,就是以公平值入帳的投資虧損,達4.56億元!在損益帳中,該公司來自投資的股息收入的確升了6.7倍,奈何只得126萬元,真的令人氣餒。

面對業績如此不濟,該股股價昨日就跌5%,只得7.1仙,若以完成供股日起計,股價更累跌20%。

大家可以發現,即使公司個董事會內的名人、高人如何「德高望重」、履歷如何厲害,原來也是避不開劫數的,可能大家會認為只是大勢所趨,怎樣能夠抽身而退呢?加上大市有升有跌,只要一直持有,就有機會翻身,況且不出售股份的話,只是帳面數,他朝大市回升時就可回撥嘛!

禤中怡並不懷疑這種論調,因為持有優質股份作長線投資,無疑有增值機會,但仍需注意入市時間。散戶過去被批評接火棒,就是在全民瘋狂,股價已處高位時仍買貨,偏又不懂止蝕,損失慘重,但為何收取董事袍金和報酬的公司管理層也如此不濟?若果看不到趨勢,就算聽聽二流專家在投資講座中,多次看淡港股,都應該可以得到點啟示吧!

對投資者而言,更大問題是,上市公司持有的所謂證券投資,究竟籃子內的東西是甚麼,恐怕知道的少之又少,實際如何操作,就更加無從了解,故此投資這類股份時,真的不知道憑甚麼作判斷。

另一點值得注意的是,就是民豐控股的年結日期為3月底,差不多有接近4個月時間,但期間卻不見發出「盈利警告」的通告,讓股東早作了解,而這種情況亦在一些上市公司出現,就真是更叫人無奈。

按照港交所(388)的股價敏感資料披露指引列明:「發行人若發覺業績可能遠遜於市場一般預期,即應發出公告『示警』,提醒投資者可能造成的有關影響。」可惜,所謂指引,就是不屬於《上市規則》的一部分,而且以甚麼準則去釐定業績可能遠遜於市場一般預期,卻未有標準,一切靠上市公司高層去考慮,莫非虧損擴大90%就不算,要蝕到「渣都冇」方符合披露資格?

(7月29日刊於《am730》)

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