Thursday, July 03, 2008

航空股奏悲歌

油價高企和利息向上這兩頭「猛獸」夾擊,威力無窮。全球面對這個問題也束手無策,股市怎會有「起色」,港股面對這些壞消息,果然陰乾到連22,000點也跌穿,又有7隻恒指牛證被強制收回,始終不能同市場「拗氣」。

航空股業績差屬預期之內,國泰航空(293)昨日發盈利警告,反而有後知後覺之感,因為油價企在高位多時,儘管乘客肯搭飛機,但毛利必被蠶食,怎會現在才公布有重大影響呢?至於其他航空股,更似為油公司「打工」。

國泰股價今年以來的跌勢,僅為28%,比中國國航(753)累跌逾66%為佳,但恐怕要追「落後」(跌勢)了。該股昨日上午收市仍報15.02元,之後揀中午未開市前公布消息,大戶立時準備,開市即有20萬股掛14.4元成交,短短3分鐘便跌近1元,更在5分鐘內失守14元,之後有手13.72元沽37.5萬股,涉515萬元,但即時有反彈,在13.82元各買入10萬和22萬股,令市場穩定下來,可惜仍要跌5.9%收市,連帶阿媽的太古(019)股價亦不能倖免,也要下滑5.7%。

上月20日,內地成品油價格最受注目,至於航空煤油出廠價每噸加1,500元人民幣就似乎無人留意,因為加幅達25%,比成品油加幅更大,而內地航空煤油零售價亦從6,520元人民幣增至8,020元人民幣,也加了23%。國際航空及運輸協會(IATA)指5月國際航空燃料每桶價格平均約160美元,比去年同期急升87%,與原油價格同期漲81%比較,升幅更驚人,令航空公司的單位成本升20%至30%之多。

粗略計算,以一噸相等於7.2桶計,國際航空燃料每噸價格為1,152美元,即約7,950元人民幣,若與內地航煤油舊價格6,520元人民幣比較,足足每噸差距高逾1,430元人民幣,明顯可見國際市場價格高很多,試問飛往內地的國際航空公司,當飛機抵達內地時,怎會放棄入平油機會呢?

可惜,見到自己煉一噸蝕一噸,兼且益了外國航空公司,內地經濟官員當然要設法堵塞漏洞,或許不會像補貼中國石化(386)的煉油業務虧損般,向內地航空公司給予補貼,但上周已公布將加國內航線燃油附加費,相信可幫補一點,國際航空公司則難再獲甜頭,莫非國泰因為再無平油,才會等到昨日才發盈警?相信要問問公司管理層了。

題外話,《信報》網上版面世,網址為www.hkej.com,要訂閱網上版,一年盛惠389元,即每日1元多一點,但話比原價598元平,起碼忘記買報紙也可重溫網上內容。重頭賣點自然是評論,相信可吸引海外華人幫襯。即時新聞也不欠奉,兼且是免費閱讀,但非樣樣齊。今日是信報創刊35周年,有慶祝酒會,曾特首會捧場,小小超會到嗎?

(7月3日刊於《am730》)

13 Comments:

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外國航空公司在內地加航油的價格要遠高于內地航空公司,你的猜測是錯的。

 
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