Wednesday, June 11, 2008

外匯埋衝擊波

恒指由4月中的23,878點起步,但不足兩個月內,再從26,262點跳水向下,昨日再挫逾千點,即從高位累積不見了近3,000點,大市打回原形,顯然大戶出手夠重之餘,更趁多個壞消息踩多腳。

通脹惡化、油價和商品價屢創新高,政府的貨幣政策似乎陷入進退失據的局面,再加上亞洲國家的政經問題,均營造利淡情況。

至於資金趁勢湧來湧去,從股市撤資後,投向商品市場,油價竟然一日間可以暴升10美元,可見資金巨浪的威力有多大。當商品高位見過之後,資金又要找下一個投資目標,相信美元近期向上,正好為外匯市場埋下另一個衝擊波,湧入貨幣市場找獵物的話,匯市大波動勢難免。

美元匯價近日表現的確不俗,兌日圓匯價短短在一周間已升逾2%,但過去1個月只升了約3.8%,可見近期升勢加速,而市場的理據是減息周期完結,與其他貨幣的息差,有望避免進一步拉闊。

問題是,美國基本經濟環境改善始終有限,依靠政府高官出口術,一時話高通脹、又話可能干預匯價,希望維持強美元方針等等,而這些言論根本難以支持,只要稍微有些風吹草動,如銀行業績續差,大戶必掉頭利用壞消息,大啖咬落去。

其他亞洲貨幣亦存隱憂,大家憂慮金融風暴再現,早前談及的越南股市構成災難,越南盾續弱,政府大員高調話有足夠外匯儲備應付,其實家底有多少,一眼睇晒,怎不令人擔心呢!

投資一定要時刻警惕,早作準備,總好過事後補救,面對大跌市,禤中怡找股票行的sales朋友問兩句,查問損傷程度,原來sales朋友對大市向下,甚至成交轉靜早有心理準備,畢竟朋友在股票市場打滾多年,早已懂得「好天斬埋落雨柴」,儲定彈藥應付寒冬的來臨。

Sales朋友話,歷史顯示,大市一旦轉靜後,需要一段時間方可再活躍起來,如97金融風暴後,等00年科網熱潮才有較多生意,之後又沉靜,在03年沙士爆發,又要等兩年才重新起步,估計今次這一浪也要等到年底、甚至明年才有較好的日子。

究竟現時情況有幾差?他說旺市時,一日逾千萬元交易,實屬閒事,今日有過二、三百萬元就已叫萬幸。最有趣的是,連他自己也叫客戶勿沾手股票,不想客戶連本都輸掉,日後翻身更難。

可惜,sales朋友慨歎,客戶手癮難忍,總要入市做買賣,奈何識買唔識沽,即刻束手就擒,唯有先做蟹,變相又少了一批入市資金,聞到市場陣陣陰乾味。

(6月11日刊於《am730》)

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