Tuesday, May 27, 2008

中移動見真章

期指臨近結算,轉倉活動又見增加,即月期指成交逾7.8萬張,但高低位300多點,未算太波動,相信周一未平倉合約跌破9萬張。

難得中國移動(941)這隻巨無霸有負面消息,自然成為推低指數的主要動力,一下子不見了超過10元一股,認真得人驚,以收市價114.9元計,與07年度業績比較,市盈率仍達26.4倍,倘若08年度業績維持30%的幅度增長,代表預測市盈率降至20.3倍左右,貴定平呢?

相信大家都知道,當概念變成真實,那份溢價就會消失,今日內地電訊業重組落實,可見將來要看真章了。中移動母公司併鐵通,非併入上市公司,對業務無即時影響,待鐵通業務成熟後才注入,變相提供注資概念。

其實大家用流動電話時,經發射站所接收和發放的訊號,依然需經固網專線傳輸往交換中心,方可打出或接聽電話,故此有鐵通的15萬公里固定網絡,或許可以減少依賴其他固網商的傳輸服務而降低費用。

市場還關注3G投資問題。看看香港的網絡商發展3G後,2G便毋須再大量投資,且網絡設備隨技術成熟,費用定必較以往下調,兼且可即時跳上3.5G技術,加上非即時全面覆蓋,資本開支應不會大增,折舊開支非最大問題。

競爭方面,政府並未新增流動電話網絡數目,只是拆開由兩個營運商負責,代表競爭主要視乎營運商的進取程度。能否擴大競爭,依靠市場調節已證明行不通,因為中移動太大隻,市場佔有率達68%,況且中國電信(728)還要買CDMA網絡,倘要花錢的話,意味財務負擔進一步加深,怎會有能力競爭呢?

當然,政府出手亦不一定奏效,像南韓SK Telecom Co曾於2000年被政府規定將市佔率由57%降至2001年的50%水平。數年過去,即使目前維持相若水平,客戶人數依然淨增長,比2000年還多47%,意味公司業務發展難阻。

至於較有威力的撒手鐧,就是引入電話號碼可㩦(mobile number portability),君不見香港的流動電話市場被激活的原動力,就是用戶可以轉台,又減價,又有手機補貼,加速市場發展。更重要的是,起碼讓中國電信、聯通可以爭奪中移動那些根深蒂固的高端客戶,否則只吸納消費低的客戶,即使有3G服務,也難吸引他們願多花費,使用數據服務,屆時得物無所用,才是令市場憂慮的因素。

另外,見到電訊設備股飛升,禤中怡提醒大家,高追要懂走位,畢竟這類股份累升不少外,確實「行先」很多,因為電訊公司重組需時,獲3G牌照後又要招標競投,非短期可行,今年業績亦難反映有關利好因素,況且概念變事實,故此小心大戶高位派貨,入市變大鱷點心。

(5月27日刊於《am730》)

12 Comments:

At 11:13 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

中国移动的合理价格大概是100-120,如果我是巴菲特我会等到80才出手.

 
At 10:35 AM, Blogger oakleyses said...

oakley sunglasses, ray ban sunglasses, coach purses, oakley sunglasses, louboutin, air max, polo ralph lauren outlet, tiffany and co, longchamp handbags, louis vuitton handbags, nike shoes, longchamp handbags, louis vuitton, louis vuitton outlet, polo ralph lauren outlet, michael kors outlet, jordan shoes, michael kors outlet, michael kors outlet, kate spade outlet, true religion jeans, prada handbags, christian louboutin shoes, chanel handbags, nike free, louis vuitton outlet, gucci outlet, air max, burberry outlet, ray ban sunglasses, coach outlet, prada outlet, oakley sunglasses cheap, burberry outlet, tory burch outlet, louis vuitton outlet stores, michael kors outlet, louboutin, kate spade handbags, louboutin outlet, true religion jeans, coach outlet store online, michael kors outlet, coach factory outlet, tiffany and co, michael kors outlet, longchamp outlet

 
At 10:35 AM, Blogger oakleyses said...

nike roshe, oakley pas cher, hogan outlet, sac hermes, abercrombie and fitch, longchamp, nike free pas cher, michael kors, lululemon, barbour, nike tn, louis vuitton, nike trainers, converse pas cher, sac louis vuitton, new balance pas cher, michael kors, air jordan, nike blazer, nike free, north face, vanessa bruno, north face, polo ralph lauren, sac guess, vans pas cher, hollister, true religion outlet, air max, sac burberry, air force, air max pas cher, louboutin, ralph lauren, true religion outlet, nike roshe run, sac longchamp, timberland, hollister, michael kors pas cher, polo lacoste, ray ban pas cher, ray ban sunglasses, air max, nike air max, sac louis vuitton, louis vuitton uk, mulberry

 
At 10:40 AM, Blogger oakleyses said...

soccer jerseys, marc jacobs, canada goose, canada goose, ghd, nfl jerseys, nike huarache, north face outlet, ugg pas cher, ferragamo shoes, ugg, asics running shoes, mac cosmetics, birkin bag, valentino shoes, vans shoes, giuseppe zanotti, instyler, longchamp, reebok outlet, hollister, bottega veneta, chi flat iron, canada goose jackets, ugg australia, mcm handbags, mont blanc, abercrombie and fitch, uggs outlet, soccer shoes, jimmy choo outlet, canada goose uk, insanity workout, beats by dre, canada goose outlet, babyliss pro, new balance shoes, nike roshe run, celine handbags, wedding dresses, canada goose, lululemon outlet, ugg boots, north face jackets, rolex watches, herve leger, ugg boots, p90x

 
At 10:44 AM, Blogger oakleyses said...

air max, lancel, moncler, moncler outlet, supra shoes, moncler, juicy couture outlet, hollister clothing store, oakley, timberland boots, juicy couture outlet, ray ban, louboutin, vans, karen millen, pandora charms, converse, canada goose, thomas sabo, links of london, hollister, coach outlet store online, toms shoes, pandora charms, iphone 6 cases, moncler, parajumpers, louis vuitton, ugg, converse shoes, canada goose, swarovski, pandora jewelry, ugg, ralph lauren, moncler, air max, swarovski crystal, montre homme, gucci, moncler, hollister, wedding dresses, moncler, baseball bats, rolex watches

 
At 11:52 AM, Blogger ninest123 Ninest said...

ninest123 11.11
iphone 5s cases, air max, insanity workout, iphone 6 plus cases, celine handbags, ghd, instyler, ralph lauren, iphone 6 cases, soccer shoes, vans, baseball bats, reebok outlet, air max, iphone 6s plus cases, asics running shoes, beats by dre, lululemon outlet, wedding dresses, babyliss pro, new balance shoes, converse, abercrombie and fitch, gucci, ipad cases, ray ban, s6 case, soccer jerseys, p90x, jimmy choo outlet, birkin bag, mont blanc, vans shoes, timberland boots, giuseppe zanotti, north face jackets, chi flat iron, oakley, iphone cases, ferragamo shoes, mcm handbags, north face outlet, mac cosmetics, herve leger, bottega veneta, nfl jerseys, abercrombie, nike roshe run, iphone 6s cases, louboutin, valentino shoes, hollister clothing store

 
At 11:56 AM, Blogger ninest123 Ninest said...

canada goose, doke gabbana, sac louis vuitton, marc jacobs, moncler outlet, sac lancel, toms shoes, ugg, louis vuitton uk, canada goose, links of london, thomas sabo, hollister, swarovski, pandora charms, canada goose jackets, pandora jewelry, converse shoes, pandora charms, moncler, barbour, rolex watches, canada goose outlet, moncler, michael kors handbags, moncler, ugg, louis vuitton, moncler, montre homme, karen millen, canada goose, pandora jewelry, sac louis vuitton, michael kors outlet, supra shoes, moncler, moncler, ugg pas cher, swarovski crystal, juicy couture outlet, moncler, canada goose, coach outlet store online, wedding dresses, ugg, canada goose, juicy couture, ugg boots, michael kors outlet online, louis vuitton, canada goose uk, barbour

 
At 1:27 PM, Blogger ninest123 Ninest said...

oakley sunglasses, louis vuitton outlet, burberry outlet, cheap uggs, louis vuitton outlet, longchamp handbags, michael kors outlet, michael kors outlet, jordan shoes, burberry outlet, ugg boots clearance, chanel handbags, louboutin outlet, michael kors outlet, polo ralph lauren outlet, christian louboutin, oakley sunglasses cheap, nike shoes, louis vuitton, air max, prada handbags, prada outlet, tiffany and co, air max, tiffany and co, ray ban sunglasses, ugg outlet, uggs, longchamp handbags, michael kors outlet online sale, ray ban sunglasses, replica watches, longchamp outlet, louis vuitton outlet stores, michael kors outlet, oakley sunglasses, cheap oakley sunglasses, uggs outlet, gucci outlet, polo ralph lauren, ray ban sunglasses, rolex watches, louis vuitton handbags, tory burch outlet, louboutin, louboutin shoes, nike free, oakley sunglasses, michael kors outlet

 
At 1:29 PM, Blogger ninest123 Ninest said...

nike air force, sac hermes, hogan outlet, michael kors, coach purses, nike trainers, nike roshe run pas cher, air max, ray ban sunglasses, air max, air jordan, coach factory outlet, vans pas cher, polo lacoste, michael kors uk, nike tn, ralph lauren, sac guess, sac burberry, polo ralph lauren, vanessa bruno, longchamp, mulberry, hollister, nike free pas cher, michael kors outlet, nike air max, nike roshe, north face, sac longchamp pas cher, hollister, air max pas cher, nike huaraches, true religion outlet, converse pas cher, ray ban pas cher, true religion jeans, timberland, nike free, new balance pas cher, oakley pas cher, coach outlet store online, longchamp, north face, true religion jeans, nike blazer, abercrombie and fitch, louboutin, michael kors pas cher, lululemon outlet online, true religion outlet
ninest123 11.11

 
At 10:21 AM, Blogger 艾丰 said...

jianbin1201
michael kors outlet sale
tory burch handbags
prada handbags
puma shoes
michael kors handbags wholesale
fitflop outlet
canada goose sale
michael kors online outlet
wedding dresses
michael kors handbags
uggs on sale
ugg clearance
tods shoes
bottega veneta outlet online
uggs outlet
links of london uk
replica watches
nike shoes
arizona cardinals
mont blanc
lululemon outlet store
miami dolphins
basketball shoes
cleveland cavaliers
michael kors handbags,michael kors outlet,michael kors,kors outlet,michael kors outlet online,michael kors outlet online sale,michael kors handbags clearance,michael kors purses,michaelkors.com,michael kors bags,michael kors shoes,michaelkors,cheap michael kors
michael kors outlet online
salomon speedcross 3
abercrombie fitch
iphone cases
cheap oakley sunglasses
louis vuitton uk
nike huarache
woolrich clothing
celine outlet online

 
At 7:08 AM, Blogger roba gad said...


Very nice post. I definitely appreciate this site. Stick with it!
http://www.kuwait.prokr.net/
http://www.emirates.prokr.net/

 
At 4:51 PM, Blogger happy 123 said...

chrome hearts online
jordan shoes
prada glasses
cheap jordans
adidas nmd
hermes belt
nike roshe run
michael kors outlet store
nike air huarache
kobe bryant shoes
20170709

 

Post a Comment

<< Home