Wednesday, May 21, 2008

廠家也悲慘

前日話報章報頭變黑色,哀悼四川地震死難者,原來香港電子傳媒的台徽也轉為暗灰外,甚至李超人檔tom集團(2383),屬下的華娛衛視更索性取消播映所有娛樂節目,只直播重慶衛視的救災悲慘場面。

上周同貿易界朋友茶敘,離不開那句:「你捐咗未?」,之後朋友慨歎話,香港商界也有悲慘場面,皆因剛於月初結束的「香港禮品和贈品展」無以前那般熱鬧,好像部分年年設有攤位(booth)的公司,今年已不再見到其蹤影,即使過去大手筆,在當眼位置設大攤位的,今年也縮小至只有兩個細尺碼的攤位,未知是不是景氣欠佳所致。他續稱,以往有些參展商話訂貨無問題,但最少每種展品要1,000件才有得傾,今年傾單卻更容易,竟然連100件貨也可落order(訂單),認真神奇!

不過,望望貿易發展局網站,今年參展商人數逾3,900個,買家人數逾5萬,比07年的攤位數目逾4,200個,亦吸引逾5萬名來自141個國家及地區的買家,似乎分別不大,況且這個展覽會傳統有一張長長的waiting list(輪候名單),很多公司都想設攤位,希望吸納客戶,理應仍屬好景。

禤中怡只好找有參展的禮品商朋友問個究竟,這位朋友卻話早已預料市道會差,若果連同正洽談的訂單計算在內,能夠做到07年生意額的八成,已實屬萬幸,而他曾經同其他行家談起,原來有些也是見步行步,一旦接單不理想,便索性結束業務離場。

禮品商朋友話,對比年初廣州交易會,反應已屬不錯,起碼無廣交會般實施強制檢查等趕客規矩,但廠商面對的核心問題未解決,首當其衝的,自然是人民幣升值和原料價高企問題。儘管歐元升值不少,歐洲客對價格敏感度相對較低,落單本應較爽快,奈何早前碰上西藏問題,多少構成影響。至於拿著美元的美國客就更小心,面對有些廠家加價20%,花旗買家難免有點猶豫,更嚴重的是,這個加幅有效期僅維持最多兩周時間,之後再傾單的話,價格隨時再升,抵銷人幣匯率向上和原料價格增加的影響。他續稱,美國客若要想一想而遲落單,對廠商也沒有好處,因為踏入生產旺季,有訂單亦難應付,變相見財化水。

當然,勞動法等新規定亦迫廠家走向絕路,已屬街知巷聞。禮品商朋友更大膽假設,若果公司今年無在展覽出現,很大機會已結束生意,避免虧損擴大,並講了一個故事,話說有廠商設有數間廠房,奈何生意非佳,靠賒靠借等頂住,更想出遷入內陸,希望獲得當地政府的貸款擔保,紓緩資金周轉問題,可惜消息曝光,現有廠房的地方政府見對方欠租又欠員工薪酬等問題未辦妥,當然不肯就範,最終搬廠難產,引致走上清盤的命運。

(5月21日刊於《am730》)

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