Wednesday, May 28, 2008

羅奇睇衰美經濟

正當大家對美國次按危機問題感到麻木之際,美國財長保爾森、國際投資大鱷索羅斯、股神巴菲特,甚至國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)主席史特勞斯卡恩早前紛認為信貸危機最壞時刻已過,確令人憧憬黑暗將盡,黎明將至,況且歐美大行撇帳撇到嚇死人,兼伸手攞錢填氹,相信身體(資產負債表)獲補身(供股集資)後,起碼可以休養生息。

不過,這些知名金融專家唱好後,又補充話,憂慮次按影響恐擴散至其他層面,所以話,研究他們的言論,要睇清楚全部實情。現已投身商界的前聯儲局主席格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)更發功,話依然有逾50%機會,美國經濟會陷入衰退,而且話太早講最壞時刻已經過去,實行向在朝為官者大潑冷水。

其實,由摩根士丹利(大摩)的首席經濟師調任為大摩亞洲主席的羅奇(Stephen Roach),早於2004年已話美國財政赤字惡化問題,加上資產泡沫膨脹,勢必拖累全球經濟,最終這個問題爆發,美國經濟率先陷困境,而他於5月號的《CFO亞洲》接受訪問時,更認為美國衰退程度,將比大家所預期的程度嚴重得多。

這位大師對衰退時間將會更漫長,兼且更厲害的理據是,美國人過去依賴資產如房屋價格向上,以及享受低企的信貸成本,消費比收入還高,奈何資產泡沫爆破外,失業率上升,令薪酬於今年至明年初也難向上,自然令問題惡化。

羅奇並指,當地消費佔去年實際國民生產總值(GDP)72%,若計及樓市於06年高峰期的時候,亦約佔GDP的6%,即這兩個範疇足以影響GDP的78%之多!他更警告,對比7年前美國出現類似的衰退情況,今日資本支出的規模,足足相等於當時的6倍之高,可見問題影響深遠程度,試問美國人怎不會要勒緊肚皮,迎接今次更大型的經濟調整期。

這位在亞洲打滾多時的賓架認為,中國藉此出口放緩機會,可成功冷卻過熱經濟,料經濟增長從11.5%降至8%至9%,但他接受訪問時,四川尚未出現大地震,會否影響宏觀經濟,就未計算在內。

至於以出口型經濟為主的台灣、南韓及部分東協國家就要多加留意,因為美國經濟差,若進口需求放緩的話,上述地區的經濟必受打擊,經濟增長肯定減慢。

更嚴重的是,日本經濟並未如內地般,有內需經濟支持,以抵禦出口放緩的影響,故此隨時再度陷入衰退的境地,屆時同老大哥美國同聲一哭,卻因為這兩個全球最大和第二大經濟體出事,拖累全球經濟才是最大件事。

這些危言聳聽的言論並非要嚇怕大家,只是要提高警惕,次按未來會否續有餘震,抑或在樓市和消費信貸市場衍生「決堤」危機,值得注視。

(5月28日刊於《am730》)

9 Comments:

At 7:28 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

美國經濟應只放緩而不會衰退,其「實體經濟」因美元大幅貶值而持續發展,出口增加,美國企業在外地市場生意上昇。
其實美元大幅貶值及油價大幅上昇長遠而言對世界是好事。美國可再腳踏實地,靠「實體經濟」賺錢,不用單靠「虛擬經濟」大炒特炒,掠奪他國財富來賺錢,整個世界經濟也較健康。
至於高油價,可推動節省能源及發展再生能源,這樣地球較少汚染,我們下一代有一個合適居住環境。

 
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