Tuesday, June 10, 2008

商品大拼盤

之前已談及「農脹」問題,想不到投機大戶見股市無起色,實行轉個戰場,瞓身投向商品市場,總之石油價格舞弄至高位後,連粟米、小麥及大豆樣樣都炒,好像有升無跌似的,恐怕大家也要學習買賣紅豆期貨,甚至散戶碰面談橙汁期貨,展現一邊食、一邊賺的場面。

農產品上漲,亞洲區國家經濟不一定有利好影響,只會對大炒家有利,一般民眾只會直接感受到食品價格增加的問題,即使加薪,相信已被蠶食得七七八八。種植這類產品的農夫,所售產品實際價格,並非像大家坐在冷氣房內,看著個「芒」跳吓跳吓的價格那般高,儘管收入真的有所提升,奈何日後拿著筆錢去買東西,在通脹飆升情況下,購買能力不見得會大幅改善,只要看看亞洲多國民眾大受石油和食物價格飆升的打擊而上街示威,就知道問題嚴重性。

記得與上市公司朋友談到原料價格向上的趣聞,雖然並非農產品,但似乎也有異曲同工之妙。朋友訂了一批塑膠,供生產之用,適逢塑膠價升到無邊無際,當批塑膠抵達港口,還未卸貨,朋友話價格已比訂貨價升了10%!代表單單賣出手上的塑膠原料,就已經穩賺,可能比生產為製成品的風險更低,試問誰還會拿出拼勁做實業,索性齊齊變投機,但箇中風險又有多少人在意。

至於栗米、大豆和小麥等尚未加工,價格就已經發狂,想想日後製成品價格,就打從心底裡震出來,但相信大市懶理,應繼續炒股不炒市,今日大家的焦點就是炒本港上市的農業股,像大成生化(809)、中國糧油(606)、超大現代(682)等。當然,油價創新高,油股亦是另一主角,但有些具備下游業務,隨時賺來的也不夠抵銷煉油虧損,加上內地加油價遙遙無期,所以要識得揀。

炒股不炒市在日本一樣通行,若果有留意體育新聞,就知道日本蛙王北島康介刷新200米蛙泳世界紀錄,又可威威,而他穿上Speedo「海豚戰衣」亦可能是勝出原因之一。原來他在北京奧運要穿日本品牌美津濃(Mizuno)泳衣出戰,但經此一役,你估蛙王要勝利戰衣,抑或尊重合約精神呢?事件已令日本泳聯考慮應否放寬泳手選擇泳衣品牌,畢竟贏取金牌最重要。

本土品牌就此遭殃,美津濃股價昨日就一下子跌2.8%,連帶另一品牌Asics股價更挫3.6%,跌幅比日經平均指數下滑2.13%還要多。當然,投資者轉投Speedo陣營,專門在日本銷售Speedo產品的Goldwin Inc股價就逆市大漲22%,成為當地主板升幅最大的股份。若果理論相同,他日李寧(2331)贊助的運動員奪金牌,股價相信也要大升慶祝。

(6月10日刊於《am730》)

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