Tuesday, June 03, 2008

越南也有災民

新興市場就是如此刺激好玩,像越南胡志明市證券交易所,面對連跌16個交易日後,上周突然「死機」,還要連續停市3天,可惜上周五復市,作為越南股市指標的VN指數,依然承接上周跌勢,連跌17個交易日,即差不多整個5月都是報跌收市。

埋單計數,原來越南股市在5月猛挫20.73%,成為亞洲區跌幅最大股市,場面認真令人震慄。踏入6月依然無起色,VN指數昨日再跌1.48%,收市報407.9點,會否邁向連跌20個交易日呢?即使能夠反彈,相信要收復全部失地亦有難度,因為該指數於今年累積跌幅高逾55%!

上周突然停市,越南胡志明市證券交易所的官員解釋話,交易系統無法運作,主因是Unix操作系統出現故障所致,但為何需要停市3日這麼長,去維修系統,當然要問專業人士。不過,事件難免惹來讓市場喘一喘氣的揣測,好像香港於87年,聯交所主席李福兆讓港股停市4天,希望讓投資者悲觀情緒降溫一樣,可惜跳船者只管保命,怎會靜觀其變,試問怎不擔心連渣都冇,當年就爆發了87股災!

當地有投資者更蝕到入肉,根本無能力再玩下去,變成股市災民。這也難怪,越南統計局話5月份消費者物價年增25.2%,創1992年以來最大增幅,其中糧價更激升67.8%,面對通脹肆虐,有關當局束手無策,成為大戶拋售股份藉口,由以往的投資寵兒變成冷落對象。

要救市,竟有人提議上市公司回購股份,但效果肯定是杯水車薪,37間胡志明交易所掛牌的上市公司已經回購近1,000萬股,像有間房地產商Vincom用每股9.3萬越南盾回購,奈何股價仍跌至7.3萬越南盾,又不見了21.5%,根本無穩定股價作用。

外資其實對谷高通脹也是「貢獻」良多,單是今年首5個月外國直接投資(Foreign Direct Investment,FDI)已達153億美元(約1,193億港元),足足比去年同期大幅增加近2.6倍之多!已相等於預期全年吸水210億美元總額的72.8%,而當中發展324個新項目的就佔96%,意味資金仍要繼續湧入,以應付項目所需,際遇同內地一樣,通脹難救。

此外,大摩發功,話越南盾企在高位,用以遏抑通脹,但本身經濟實力隱憂多,分分鐘成為炒家狙擊對象,像當年引爆金融風暴的泰銖崩圍一樣,火燒整個亞洲區。

大家不要忽視其他新興市場的局勢,除越南股市重創外,如巴基斯坦股市在5月已累積下滑18.9%,而印度股市則跌6.73%。至於泰國政局動盪,甚至醞釀政變,話雖當地經常政治不穩,很快又回復過來,但擔驚受怕難免。隔鄰的馬來西亞政府首相巴達維又被前首相馬哈蒂爾催促下台,反對黨更對執政虎視耽耽,會不會是動盪的開始?

(6月3日刊於《am730》)

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