Wednesday, June 04, 2008

齊齊去重組

當概念變成事實時,就失去炒作意義,且看3隻內地電訊股復牌後,跌到四腳朝天,藍籌股也有逾10%的跌幅,好炒過細價股,起碼有成交配合。

今次爭先恐後的沽貨,究竟是否停牌多日,衍生工具跟隨暫停買賣所產生的影響,皆因時間值損耗不少,且看同中國電信(728)、聯通(762)和網通(906)相關認購輪狂瀉,投資者一鋪清袋,有的甚至不見了97%!

從基本因素看,見到隻中國電信用真金白銀買個CDMA業務,資金需求可想而知,真的不知怎樣應付固網和流動通訊兩條戰線,唯一的好處是,中國電信母公司負責網絡建設,上市公司只擁有經營權,對上市公司的財務壓力相對較輕,但長遠還需購入網絡,才可以有較大的靈活性。

以4月底CDMA客戶人數4,309萬名計,用1,100億元人民幣買網絡和業務,即每名客戶價值2,553元人民幣,以3月底每名客戶每月平均收入(ARPU)53.3元人民幣計,即要4年時間才可收回投資。當然,這只是一個籠統的計算方法,因為客戶仍會有所增長,但ARPU下滑已是人盡皆知的事實,而且還未計算日後其他成本在內。

不過過,大戶又可以講故事,話以07年底計,中國電信所持CDMA業務在流動通訊市場的佔有率僅8%,反映日後有很大增長空間,潛力優厚。你信唔信?

電訊業重組,銀行業也要做整固,招商銀行(3968)勇奪永隆銀行(096)後,中型銀行股又再度吃香,繼續炒收購概念。至於持有中信嘉華銀行的中信國金(183)亦要停牌,等大股東中信集團同西班牙金融集團BBVA出價,將其私有化。由於中信國金持有中信銀行(998)股權,待私有化完成之後,中信集團就可以直接持有中信銀行和中信嘉華銀行股權,說不定日後由中信銀行向母公司收購中信嘉華銀行,從姊妹公司變成附屬公司,直接參與本港銀行業務。

有重組氣味,大家自然搜索同類股份,所以工銀亞洲(349)昨日逆市造好,股價由周一收市的20.9元,急升至22.8元,雖然收市報22.55元,但仍升近7.9%,成交股數從最近這兩日,每日逾百萬股,一下子狂增至逾600萬股,追捧味道濃烈。

究竟中國工商銀行(1398)會否也加入重組行列,將工銀亞洲私有化,藉此提升營運效益呢?扣除工商銀行本身所持62.98%股權,連同另一主要股東富通集團所持9.15%股權,工銀亞洲的街貨逾3.529億股,以昨日收市價計,就要付出近80億元,方可收歸旗下。

有趣的是,以收市價計,工銀亞洲的市帳率才約1.84倍,對比永隆被收購的市帳率達3.1倍,確有天淵之別,難怪惹來春江鴨支持。

(6月4日刊於《am730》)

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