Tuesday, June 17, 2008

油息夾擊經濟

港股升437點,但人人話只屬反彈,可見看淡後市的著實不少。其實,全日主板總成交額只有566億元,創業板更只有疏落的1.6億元,認真失禮,而整體總成交額更是本月新低。扣除窩輪成交,只有441億元而已,可見大家都不敢追入,乾升味道濃厚。

月初話越南股市跌個沒完沒了,憂慮對亞洲市場存有暗湧,豈知風雨撲來迅速,各地股市立刻齊哀。上周話擔心資金湧往外匯市場,只見美元虎虎生威,證明這場衝擊波威力的確強勁。

美國識玩息口因素,其他國家也懂得這一招,實行先加息穩定資金,兼且以為可起壓抑通脹惡化之效,更重要的是,能夠抵銷與美國息差的影響。問題是,採取這種收緊銀根政策的結果,肯定對本身經濟構成打擊,而且油價和食品價格大幅向上,才是核心通脹愈升愈有的主兇,甚至已到民不聊生的地步。面對如斯境況,大家仍好像不太擔心,再有亞洲金融風暴出現,但或許今次並非被大鱷狙擊,而隨時可能由內部引爆出來。

遠的不說,本港油價高企,誰人照顧商業用車呢?特區政府死不肯減油稅應急,卻撤銷紅酒稅,司機當然要上街抗爭,弄致交通癱瘓,而油價高企引發抗議情況,在亞洲其他地區如南韓等亦同樣出現,因為油價即使不創新高,企在這水平,大眾已很難接受,故此絕對不容輕視對經濟和社會的影響。可是我們的特區政府卻仍是漠不關心!

亞洲股匯飽受蹂躪,美國經濟亦續雪上加霜,這邊廂雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)業績公布,虧損28億美元(約218.4億港元),蝕到入肉外,望望其淨資產,發現在短短3個月間,竟消失了近700億美元,即約5,460億港元!其他金融機構也不好過,美國國際集團(AIG)CEO要落台,肯定是業務無法扭轉過來,需另請高明。分析員更估計高盛和大摩即將公布的第二季業績也不會好睇,可見次按等問題始終未解決,難怪連《華盛頓郵報》也話伯老無能力加息。禤中怡也認為美國經濟被踩多腳,亞洲出口傷得更重。

美國息口未掉頭向上,香港有銀行已先出手,加樓宇按揭息,實屬意料之內,即使再加也不用大驚小怪,只要有兩手準備,置業時預留息口向上所產生的額外供款,理應還可安心入睡。若計盡入市的則請計數,起碼預算按揭息加0.75厘,甚至加1厘後,實際供款究竟有多少,能否繼續承擔這筆新增支出,否則屆時方寸大亂,要脫身就不易了。

對比英國,香港的業主幸福得多,因為英國第二大貸款機構Nationwide落實加按揭息,早前話最多0.3厘,但最後其定息按揭息率要加介乎0.25至0.5厘,比預期為多,經調整後,按揭息最高見7.85厘,對樓價肯定再插一刀。

(6月17日刊於《am730》)

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