Thursday, June 12, 2008

哎瘋做殺手

1部「哎瘋」挽救整個3G市場?相信無人會信。蘋果(Apple)對3G市場會否掀起巨浪,抑或只是一陣漣漪,就真的要看它的新智能手機(Smartphone)iPhone3G,能否讓用戶全面增加使用手機上網等非話音服務領域。

手機未投入市場,蘋果股價就先造好,周二股價再衝2.2%至185.64美元收市,而由3月低位約120美元反彈至今,累積升幅高達54.7%,實在是逆市奇葩,更令人憧憬股價衝破200美元,超越去年底的199.83美元,再創新高。

取得港澳iPhone3G銷售權的和記電訊國際(2332),股價更連升兩日,昨收報11.18元,微增0.7%。和電國際成為大中華地區首個推出該手機的電訊商,原來有段古。聽聞Apple大員見和電在港有逾100萬名3G客戶,佔整體3G用戶比重逾半,相信發展這個市場最為落力,所以揀該公司。不過,禤中怡就認為,做得大公司部門頭頭,見到project規模如此巨大,選擇市場最強的做夥伴,萬一失手,也好向老闆交代,實屬理所當然的商業自保策略。

其實,除電腦界外,電訊市場也一向追求「Killer Application」,簡稱killer app,或許可解作為一種大受市場歡迎的應用服務,希望藉此刺激整體服務需求,而以往大家對3G前景充滿期望,首先就是視像通話,你望我、我望你,邊望邊講,絕對是前衛之作,可惜通話質素並非所有用戶可接受,如畫面不夠流暢,清晰度亦有待改進,況且簡單通話,根本毋須見面,故很快被認定難做殺手。至於流動電視服務是下一個期待的服務,但對香港人來說,資訊需求雖高,要獲取的途徑亦多,普及程度有待考證。

今次改由硬件引爆市場需求,無疑不是好方法,最重要是,Apple大腦喬布斯進攻大眾市場(mass market),將戰線覆蓋全球,亦因規模效應巨大、3.5G技術趨成熟和非走最尖端科技,出廠價料下降不少,可將價格推低的同時,仍確保有一定利潤。

要普及化,女性市場不容忽視, Nielsen Mobile統計,去年美國女性用Smartphone數目增加1倍至1,040萬部,而去年10月每4名iPhone用戶中,1名為女性,直至今年3月已升至每3個就有1名女用戶。調查更發現她們較關注手機價格、尺寸和設計,較男性較看重Wi-Fi能力等不同。至於黑莓(Blackberry)按鍵多多,難惹喜愛,故也要推新款搶客。

Gartner統計指,今年首季Apple在Smartphone市場賣出逾172萬部,佔有率由去年的「零」,一下子佔5.3%,排第三位,落後於諾基亞和銷售黑莓的RIM,但iPhone3G基本版建議零售價199美元(約1,552港元),相信將有不少用戶會乘機提升(upgrade)手機級數,刺激使用各項3G應用服務,讓你一邊「哎瘋」,一邊讓電訊商「殺」出血路。

(6月12日刊於《am730》)

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