Wednesday, June 25, 2008

不要鮮雞要牛熊

颱風襲港,大家出入要小心,報紙先袋好,回家慢慢歎。見到又死雞、又死魚(還要是屬於國寶的一級保護動物,堪稱水中熊貓),連商務及經濟發展局長馬時亨(Frederick)也患腦血管畸型症,令人傷感,希望他所信的神保佑和看顧他及其家人,當然看顧香港所有人就更好啦!

禽流感人見人驚,只見有街市雞隻一旦證實受感染,就立刻全場封殺,氣氛夠緊張。然後政府就祭出一刀切方案,甚至要緊急立法嚇人,實行想清除所有養雞農、批發商和零售商,原因當然是「照顧」市民的健康。參考政府處理養豬業手法,很多豬農面對政策影響,索性交回養豬牌,拿回一筆特惠金算數。看似風馬牛不相及,但政府採取的手法十分相似,就是讓這類產業盡快結業,日後管理更容易,如果整個行業消失,就能真正做到唔做唔錯。

加重依賴內地供應雞和豬,著實是放棄自己的商機。若能增加投資,發展鮮雞的高附加值產品,就有生存空間,像日本除魚生外,當地養殖的雞隻也是著名美食之一,無論是雞串燒,甚至有雞肉刺身,價值非便宜,可見日本也有其商道。但港府這種應對雞農的策略,實在不敢恭維,最慘馬局長病了,否則改由他出馬,扶助產業升級,改善銷售渠道,無禽流感之餘,甚至可創造更多就業機會。

這邊廂的另類「農場」就熱鬧非常,人人追捧牛熊證,由去年第四季,大市從高位回落時,牛熊證每日平均成交額已達7.3億元,比去年第二季不足1億元有顯著升幅。直至今年第一季,日均成交額更達13.95億元,近期單日成交額均高見逾50億元,佔大市總成交近9%,連同窩輪成交,這兩類衍生產品佔昨日大市總成交逾26%,炒味濃嗎?

同證券商朋友談起,原來牛熊證吸引專業炒家垂青,因為有時買Put輪(沽輪),即使大市回落,輪價可能不貼市,或許與莊家開價太闊所致,想炒兩格賺錢就難。牛熊證就不存在這類問題,起碼貼市得多,故專業炒家買賣多,成交自然增加。

細價股水靜鵝飛,散戶也加入這種近似買大細(睇好或看淡)的產品,特別是恒指相關的牛熊證最好炒,因為像參與期指般,但入場費較低,兼不用補倉。朋友卻提醒,不要做隔夜盤,畢竟恒指上落隨時有逾500點上落,分分鐘觸及被強制收回水平,翻身無望。

至於與股份相關的牛熊證,其實也相當波動,像港交瑞銀牛證(6444)昨日就被強制收回,因為港交所(388)遭大摩睇淡,股價單日插4.3%至117.7元全日最低位收市,投資泡湯。朋友強調,要嚴守止蝕,否則愈蝕愈多,最終強制收回,本金全輸。不過,這種變相叫人炒即日鮮的做法,是否健康呢?

(6月25日刊於《am730》)

10 Comments:

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