Tuesday, June 24, 2008

分析定fund識

所謂做「分析」,其實有太多不明朗因素存在,要計算到萬無一失,恐怕是癡人說夢話,且看瑞銀財富管理部首席環球經濟師Andreas Hoefert在歐洲國家盃開賽前的預測,到今日只踏入四強階段,便已「全軍覆沒」。

當然,不能小看這個部門的預測,皆因兩年前,他們就猜中並非熱門的意大利奪得世界盃冠軍,可見自有一定分量。今次他們同樣採用當年預測世界盃的分析模型(analysis model),因應自1958年起世界盃等賽事結果作統計,再按賽事重要性作為評分標準。除了數據多,由於世界盃冠軍常客,來來去去都是巴西、意大利和德國等,勝算自然高一點,相反12屆歐國盃中,竟然就有9個國家曾經奪冠,故此分析難度更高。

按照理性數據計算,瑞銀預測四強賽事,將由捷克對瑞士,以及意大利對荷蘭所瓜分,戲碼十足,可惜,隨著最後一席四強產生,意大利無法擊敗西班牙,加上其他3隊亦被踢出局,代表整個預測已然結束。想知道瑞銀本來估那隊奪冠?答案是捷克,但瑞銀亦料僅7%捧盃,並非壓倒性。至於瑞士戰績一向平平,何解會被看好呢?或許以為與瑞銀公司背景有關,但其實在06年世界盃,瑞士打入16強,90分鐘未輸過,兼且零失球,只在互射12碼階段才輸給烏克蘭,可見亦有一定實力。大家都知球賽講實力外,運氣亦絕不能缺乏,但如何計算呢?

同樣,面對一些上市公司分析研究報告,有堆數字參考,以為很穩妥,其實也會令人摸不著頭腦,好像洛陽鉬業(3993)股價昨日重挫最多8.8%,最後仍瀉至7.08元收市,一日就不見了近8.3%。歸究原因,就是「摩笛追魂」,摩根士丹利將該股評級由「與大市同步」,調低至「減持」,目標價更由10元下調至6元,足足有40%幅度的調整,原因是該股成本增加,相信上半年業績令人失望。

有趣的是,瑞銀上周也發表研究報告,首次給予該股「買入」評級,目標價則見11.5元,股價隨即由13日收市的7.88元,一下子曾高見8.91元,累積上升達13%。瑞銀認為,洛鉬可受惠河南省政府的鉬礦整合等。

有誰會去考究,兩間大行是洛鉬於去年4月上市的聯席保薦人,奈何在短短一年多,作為其中一個保薦人的大摩,竟然將洛鉬目標價,大幅調低至比招股定價的6.8元還低!難道市場變化之快,可以在一瞬間發生?為甚麼兩間大行的分析員會得出如此極端的評級?

更令人難以明白的是,先有看好報告出籠,之後又有看淡報告面世,投資者已非掌握第一手資料,奈何面對這種場面,根本無所適從。或許你是散戶,注碼小,非大行杯茶,所以只有芬佬識,你唔識!

(6月24日刊於《am730》)

10 Comments:

At 3:07 PM, Anonymous 小子 said...

中鋁之前高盛出過報告話值30蚊....
之後股價跌,佢就keep住出d報告,如股價15就睇20,股價12就睇17......

而加跌到阿媽唔認得,暫時未見佢出聲,之前夠膽死話睇30,一如瑞銀話神話見1百...

 
At 11:43 AM, Anonymous angus said...

決賽周有 16 隊, 如果大家奪冠機會一樣, 機率係 6.25%, 佢估捷克 7% 捧盃. 這樣的分析............

 
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