Thursday, June 19, 2008

出手錯完再錯

又減股票印花稅,又嚴控大小非(限售股),內地政府對股民認真照顧周到,真要多謝黨和國家。可惜這些不著邊際的所謂救市措施,根本未有搔到癢處,怎能起救市作用呢!股市反彈後,再從稍高位置跳水,更多股民做蟹矣。第三度救市?當然要出手,但市場流傳的方案中,有些確叫人驚訝,包括推出「融資融券」。所謂融資,就是證券公司向客戶借錢,即香港投資者熟悉的孖展(Margin)也,而融券就是證券公司借出股票,或可解作是沽空(Short Sale)。

當然,國家會考慮自己的國情,研究符合其特色的政策,但增加借錢炒股票渠道,以及准許睇淡的投資策略,一看就知道其恐怖性。首先,孖展屬高風險投資,因為以槓桿方式買賣,股市大旺,當然可以刀仔鋸大樹,倘碰上跌市,股價下挫至要補倉水平,偏偏資金不足,或者跌勢太急,來不及補倉,隨時蝕到連骨都無剩。至於准借貨沽空,表面上提供買好買淡的平衡作用,奈何即使限制多多,但市場那麼大,能否制衡實難料,最怕羊群效應,你沽我沽,可能更好炒!

政府搞到似父親一樣,可惜方法有錯,不容孩子跌跌撞撞中成長,以為多些保護就無問題,日後怎可應付大世界呢!至於政府認為自己樣樣正確,兒子就要聽,要挽救更難。好像經過連續兩個月增持美國國債餘額至高達5,020億美元,即3.9萬億港元,讓國務院副總理王岐山好向美國財政部長保爾森送禮,使花旗國繼續以債養債,至於值得增持與否,且看日後價格走勢才知。

不過,有多少人記得,在去年這段時間,內地國家外匯投資公司(現稱中國投資有限責任公司,簡稱中投公司)大舉進軍海外,豪拋30億美元(約234億港元),入股正招股上市的百仕通(The Blackstone Group)。還有3天,即本月22日,就是百仕通在美國上市掛牌一周年大日子,本應大事慶祝,奈何股價江河日下,從招股定價31美元跌未停,周二收市價18美元計,足足蒸發約42%,怎不教人失望。

中投公司選擇買百仕通無投票權股份,只扮演沉默的投資者(sleeping partner),加上金額夠大,入股價有4.5%折讓,即平均價格約29.605美元,可惜對比收市價,帳面虧損仍高達約11.76億美元(約91.7億港元),損失相當慘重,現下必然說是作長線投資,否則問責起來,很多官員要丟烏紗。

對私募基金來說,1年時間或許非長,還要多看點時間吧。百仕通創辦人Stephen Schwarzman也要向股東交代,似乎準備於下月展開環球之旅,為的是籌組金額高達220億美元(約1,716億港元)的巨型收購基金,實行做大買賣,況且有這個黃皮膚的「爸爸」支持,何需多作擔心,伸手完隨時可以再攞錢的機會應該不低。

(6月19日刊於《am730》)

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