Tuesday, July 15, 2008

炒出個奧運

以為港股受美國兩隻按揭證券公司面對財困影響而開低,恒指開市卻抽上22,360點,但在1個小時內,又再表演高台跳水,完全無花式,一招直插到底,迫近21,900點後才見承接,可惜已急速回落近460點,之後在水底不足200點之間徘徊,收市跌170點至22,014點。

大市成交認真稀疏,主板只有近584億元,但窩輪成交額卻增至約144.7億元,為本月新高,佔大市比重更大增至24.78%之多,可見炒味有多濃郁,這還未算,計及牛熊證成交59.8億元,亦佔大市10.24%,代表每100元成交額中,有35元炒賣這兩類衍生產品,真是不用過濠江,也可買大細。

買大細代表有機會輸光所有本金,而昨日大市高速上落,完全表現這種情況,因為大市一高開,短短幾分鐘,竟然有8隻熊證先「打靶」,雖然之後走勢逆轉,一樣無仇報,但今趟輪到4隻牛證面對跌市景況下,也要加入強制收回行列,反映入市不能炒單邊,若不及時跟市轉變策略,一日內已連輸兩次。

禤中怡一向不鼓勵極速短炒,因為要捕捉短線走勢相當不易,兼且費神,始終看趨勢好過。近期壞消息陸續引爆,實令市場不安,其實次按問題未解決、油價續有大戶炒賣,美元弱勢難挽,統統未有消失,何妨多等一會呢?

若果手癢癢,一日不炒,便覺生活無味,倒不如去排隊炒新鈔吧!早前國家副主席習近平訪港,見到奧運氣氛如此薄弱,肯定愁眉深鎖。或許見到勢色不對,中銀香港(2388)立即推出「北京2008年奧運會港幣紀念鈔票」,但要做到人聲鼎沸,當然要想出好辦法,首先實行用限量發售去帶起熱潮,然後大家見到內地奧運紀念鈔票轉手,聲稱升值數十倍,更加激起炒賣的本性。

且看距離正式發售還有兩日,將發售有關鈔票的中銀香港分行外面,除了街上人頭湧湧外,你放水樽我擺報紙,實行做定期貨好倉般,轉頭回來排隊,等升值收錢,自然能造成人聲鼎沸的效果,人群的聲音吵吵嚷嚷,像炒菜一樣,既然有材料,當然要炒啦!

回想和記電訊國際(2332)奪得蘋果(Apple)的iPhone 3G新機獨家銷售權後,為了應付龐大認購潮,選擇結合科技的方法,實行用網上登記,然後抽出幸運兒,像抽新股般,而賣機當日更不見混亂場面。儘管欠缺新聞性,但總好過因負面新聞而成報章頭條。

不過,中銀香港肩負祖國偉大使命,若果派籌,或者網上登記的話,然後讓大家回家,就會無氣氛,而「打尖」、排隊黨等只屬小問題,所以即使大雨淋漓,不等到黃雨也不退讓,總之就是要炒出個奧運來!

(7月15日刊於《am730》)

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