Wednesday, July 09, 2008

短炒明燈乍現

美國兩隻房貸股存危機,亞洲區股市立時同聲一哭,恒指一陣虛火就打回原形兼「跌凸」,可見壞消息威力驚人,勢色不對,恐怕大戶再繼續走貨,投向商品期貨的話,油價要回落都難。

金融股更慘遭洗倉般,特別是隻東亞銀行(023),不經不覺,踏入本月,股價跌足5日,由42.35元一路滾下來,昨日尾市前半小時更曾低見36元,幸好有大手掃入10萬股,涉362萬元,之後再有每股36.3元買10萬股力頂,而在競價時段更有44.4萬股成交,涉逾1,600萬元,才能勉強迫近37元,以36.95元收市,重挫5.8%,而本月以來,該股累跌幅度更高達12.75%。東亞剛被大摩點名看淡,目標價大削至33元,難怪成為重傷股份之一。

大摩近期令市場風聲鶴唳,經其發出看淡報告,股價就如瀑布瀉下,所以自不然成為傳媒寵兒,爭相報道,昨日見某報本地加國際財經版,竟然有四個標題出現「大摩」二字,內容當然引述這間大行的意見,反映其「受歡迎程度」已達瘋狂地步。

另一隻「洗盡鉛華」的藍籌股,當然是港交所(388),大摩上月23日話該股要跌,公平值低於100元,股價便開始從123元走低,昨日曾低見100元,收市力保股價在3位數字,收101元,仍挫5.8%,恐怕用行動支持特區政府增持該股的投資者,萬萬料不到「鬍鬚曾」的投資眼光如此獨到。這還未算,大摩又再發功,周一再將港交所公平值調低至85元,代表股價要再跌15%。

目標價竟然在短期內改完再改,跟炒以為到價入市,之後大摩再調低目標價,試問怎不會損手,而分析研究報告變成短線炒賣的明燈,兼發揮如《每周評論》般的投資作用,難怪有分析員索性轉做投資經理,自己落手落腳炒好過。

港交所也非坐以待斃,「選擇」周一公布份《個人投資者調查2007》,話香港有202.2萬名證券投資者,即在受訪前12個月內曾買賣證券,佔人口比重達35.7%,代表市場參與者夠多,具重量級市場地位。為甚麼用「選擇」,因為該調查是於2007年11月16日至2008年1月15日期間,訪問了2,292人,意味差不多完成調查近半年時間後,港交所方公布結果,若果不是「選擇」,又是甚麼呢?

有趣的是,港交所於該日同時公布6月和今年上半年交易數據等數字,代表用7天時間便處理好大量數據,為甚麼只有2,292人的調查,反而需時良久?再退一步看,港交所分別於05年5月12日和06年6月19日公布同類調查結果,而遠至03和04年,更早於4月便公布結果,反而在今時今日,市場變化萬千,才披露一些舊數字,莫非港交所以為可作為秘密武器,還是工作能力愈來愈退步?

(7月9日刊於《am730》)

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