Wednesday, July 16, 2008

新股反高潮

自去年10月30日,恒指從歷史高峰31,638點回落至今,足足不見了近10,500點,即蒸發了33%。以周一市值計,港股市值也失去約6.9萬億元,相信人人有份。

當然,今日環球股市面對同聲一跌的局面,像金管局總裁任志剛這些精明的財金官員,也難避免令外匯基金的股票投資組合蒙受損失,甚至要被市民「Yam Yam」聲,皆因股市損手嚴重之外,投資債券時,亦面對息口走上,債券價格潛在下跌風險,表現也非理想,即使懂得炒外匯,恐怕要贏錢亦不易,可見今日投資環境惡劣之極,只見大戶投向商品和金屬市場,但任總手上的彈藥能否投資黃金,幫廣大納稅人保值呢?他日泡沫爆破,也能趕及脫險嗎?

股市以波動擴大的趨勢向下,有散戶朋友竟然安然度過,原來近兩周索性連證券行都懶得走上去,因見大市跌極都有,佢話:「唔知買乜好,費時無幫襯,遭人白眼。」更話驚手痕買貨後要坐盤。

不過,之前夠膽入市,認購新股的投資者也有些少收穫。且看新股近來似有逆市造好情況,天溢(756)股價首日漲11%,而招股期間未見管理層露面的卓智(982)第一日上市,也升8%收市,即使昨日大跌市,兩隻「細細粒」的公司股價亦要跟隨回落,但收市價依然守穩在招股價之上。

當然,今日輪到另一隻市場萬眾期待的新股登場,就是澳門博彩(880)也,因為歷經風風雨雨,賭王的心願終達成。其實,該股面對法律挑戰,似乎屬意料之內,相信管理層和保薦人不會料不到有此一著,並應早`有應變計劃。

該集團還安排讓投資者「縮沙」,更有「買定離手」的味道,實行表現得有規有矩,反而是原來認購該股的投資者最終選擇放棄,好像有未看清楚招股書,以及新聞報道就入市,但及後又後悔的感覺。

澳博是次所發行的新股,經過重新調配後,貨源盡歸機構投資者手上,今日掛牌,表現應不會差到那裡去,畢竟該股在澳門有一定份量,一些投資相關行業的基金,在其一籃子的投資組合中,澳博多少要佔點地位。

這類基金投資時,多會揀間最大行業領導者作為投資對象,好像景順消閒基金投資全球最大的賭場經營商Harrahs Entertainment,寶源美國小型基金投資全球第二大網上投注系統商Scientific Games Corp;而一些基金就買入馬來西亞最大的賭業經營商雲頂集團。

還可一提的,是長達兩個星期時間(一般招股期是5至6日而已)招股的英皇鐘錶珠寶(887),準備於下周一掛牌,因為有同系機構如英皇證券(717)和新傳媒(708)首日掛牌即大升的良好歷史紀錄,難免讓投資者有憧憬,希望重燃賺錢神話。

(7月16日刊於《am730》)

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