Wednesday, July 30, 2008

收買佬抬頭

上周話恒指交易區在22,000至23,000點,雖然上周確曾破23,000點,更有樂觀人士望24,000點,但美國金融業和樓市危危乎,恒指難延續急促升勢,昨日更拖累亞洲區股市跟隨同聲一跌。

原來美國並非一味輸入貨品供國民享用,還會有出口,可惜只是輸出撇帳這種無用之物,且看連蝕四季的美林(Merrill Lynch)終向現實低頭,再次狠狠地將所持抵押債券(CDO)組合中,當中總值306億美元(約2,386億港元)售予Lone Star Funds,然後撇帳達57億美元(約444億港元)就知。至於買家Lone Star其實就是南韓外換銀行(KEB)大股東,正準備月底與滙控(005)完成出售KEB交易,套回大筆資金,又可找其他獵物。但CDO人見人驚,為何Lone Star Funds如此勇猛?皆因一個字:「錢」也!美林出售CDO組合作價僅67億美元(約522億港元),代表作價只及總值的兩成,簡直似內地出售不良資產般,甩掉這個大包袱便算了。

對Lone Star Funds而言,若能成功按帳面總值計,有30%回收率,即每10元可收回3元,他們就可套回約91.8億美元(約716億港元),意味可大賺24.8億美元(約193.4億港元),回報率高達37%!如回收率愈高,回報自然更和味,這就是有錢和無錢的分別,財力不夠,只好任人魚肉。

當然,美國財技高手多的是,加上總統要救市,四大行立刻配合,美國銀行(Bank of America)、花旗(Citigroup)、摩根大通(JP Morgan Chase)及富國(Wells Fargo)將會發行新產品Covered Bond,或者可譯作資產擔保債券。

其實,這種產品並非甚麼新事物,在歐洲已流行一段時間,市場規模達3萬億美元(約23.4萬億港元),但在美國就不太流行,因為大家將按揭資產打包,然後用證券化方式出售,利錢自不然較債券為高。

銀行主要將高質素的按揭貸款或由公共機構作支持的貸款,包裝成為資產擔保債券,然後在市場集資,萬一銀行出事,上述貸款資產將會同銀行其他資產分開,令債券持有人仍然得到保障,而這類債券和那些按揭證券產品不同之處,就是債券仍需反映在銀行的資產負債表內,意味銀行要「孭上身」,兼續受嚴格監管,客戶又可多一重保障。

問題是,若果投資巨行,或者對沖基金看中水頭緊兼水深火熱的中小型銀行,就「慷慨地」認購那些銀行的資產擔保債券,他朝這些銀行最終走上倒閉之途,投資巨行和對沖基金的債券投資就穩如泰山,相反銀行的股東、甚至存戶望著其他不文一值的資產,只有苦笑一聲。
更嚴重的問題是,聯邦存款保障公司(FDIC)就要負責「埋單」,但間間銀行都賠不完,FDIC的資源也有用完的一日,試問納稅人屆時是否要幫手填氹呢?

(7月30日刊於《am730》)

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