Tuesday, August 05, 2008

齊齊派成績表

昨日大市淡靜,恒指早段未受內地恐怖襲擊影響,似乎都對奧運順利展開相當有信心,可惜,午後內地股市不濟,立即推低隻中國移動(941)、建設銀行(939)和一批地產股,令恒指收市跌1.5%。

不過,整體沽壓並非十分嚴重,如果扣除蒙牛(2319)股東配股所涉逾12億元上板,大市總成交額不足480億元。對比窩輪成交逾94億元、牛熊證成交亦超過78.9億元,分別佔總成交比重達19.3%及16%,港交所(388)有這些接近賭大細的衍生工具墊底,成交額再大跌的機會相信不大。

其實,面對不同類別派發成績單,哪有心情投入股市,好像會考放榜,做父母的也要為子女升學等等作安排。有趣的是,只見大小報章話有個13歲高智慧神童,會考將有4個A、甚至5個A,好像早已收到有關結果,頓令禤中怡以為,考試局或者有其他人提早洩露了會考結果,如上市公司在業績公布前,盈利情況外洩一樣,可知道問題有多大,之前有間藍籌股公司,向若干投資分析員選擇性透露有關公司資料,雖然事發多年,仍被譴責,懲罰算輕了。

不知是喜是悲,那位神童最終考試成績並未如報道般有驚人表現,僅有兩個A而已,比預期差,但證明真正成績與報道有所不符,起碼反映無人提早知道結果,否則有人一身蟻了。

至於大笨象滙豐控股(005)和旗下恒生銀行(011)亦派發其中期業績,成為最早公布成績表的藍籌股,以往排頭位的東亞銀行(023)則於今日才公布業績。

大笨象終略狠心作撥備逾100億美元(約780億港元),但恐怕市況惡化,撥備額將如其他大銀行般仍陸續有來,兼且規模不會小,皆因見到美國滙豐融資(HSBC Finance Corp.)仍不斷收縮業務,上半年更結束多100間分行,私人信貸、按揭和汽車貸款繼續流血,需作撇帳,似乎離止血還有一段距離,豈談得上恢復增長呢?

該股歐洲業務增長好像不俗,但歐元強勢,兌換為美元後會否提升增長呢?至於其新興市場業務增長動力能否維持,亦因區內油價高企和通脹惡化而產生疑問。香港業務於上半年稅前盈利更輕微倒退,可見生意不易做。滙控採取分散地區投資策略,可惜面對全球經濟陷入困境,加上本身已「受傷」,要讓大笨象再次起舞,無疑是個大挑戰。

不過,莫名所以的是,管理層續增派股息,雖然增幅僅5.8%,但派息率高達逾87%,即差不多把所賺的,全部撥歸予股東,究竟是為了討好股東,避免炮轟其巨額撇帳,抑或對後市看好,不擔心未來現金流,還是市場欠收購目標,而且水頭足,所以稍稍鬆手?無論如何,此舉對股價支持作用相信有限。

(8月5日刊於《am730》)

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