Wednesday, August 13, 2008

島耕作的商業智慧

大戶高位將石油和黃金平倉後,轉而玩外匯,將美元從苟延殘喘的角落裡拉出來,正好符合美國財長保爾森的強美元政策,難得的是,不少專家話純屬反彈,但這次反彈又似乎頗為大彈,反映資金流入速度十分強勁,並非虛火也。

本來找美元區資產入市,港股實屬理想選擇之一,奈何大戶玩先高後低策略,而昨日期指成交逾10萬張,小心借現貨來炒期指,跟入可能成炮灰。最重要的是,大戶利用中國移動(941)做推低對象,同時托住其他重磅藍籌股,避免跌得太深而嚇怕對手,故此未來還要留意期指未平倉合約數量,如果倉量續加大,恐怕有後著。

早前美元匯價處弱勢,本來對美國出口有好處,像6月貿易逆差,從5月後修訂的592億美元降至568億美元,當中出口便增長4%,但從壞方向看,入口僅增長1.8%,又是否意味經濟差,消費需求少,才出現這種利好假象呢?

不過,今次大戶「幫手」推高美元,那麼日後花旗國的出口業又會否再受衝擊,為疲弱經濟的傷口再灑鹽?畢竟大戶意在賺錢,怎會理會實質經濟影響,炒完便撤退,或許再轉投商品懷抱。

日本政府見到美元匯價轉強,可能最為高興,因為對當地出口業來說,多少有點好處,出口貨價變相降低,從而提升競爭力,或許可幫助其經濟減慢進入衰退的困境。

但談到日本商業前景,可能要問問島耕作這個漫畫角色了,因為連一向嚴肅的政經雜誌《經濟學人》(The Economist),也竟於今期拿這本日本漫畫,探討日本商界運作環境,認真神奇!

這本由弘兼憲史創作的漫畫,可謂是長青樹之一,故事橫跨80、90年代,由擔任日本電器商初芝公司的課長談起,升職為部長,專務等的工作歷程,當然故事純屬漫畫橋段,但或許弘兼憲史的過去體驗、以及親身走訪海外如上海等考察的關係,有些故事真實性相當高,原來連日本外務省(即外交部)都將漫畫英譯本,贈送予外國使節,讓他們認識日本商業文化。

《經濟學人》話日本企業營運講求和諧,經理級員工往往表現得如膽小鬼般,而且仍沿襲年齡分級架構,女性和外國人擔任高職的情況更是寥寥可數。不過,偏偏這個島耕作的管理和經營手法與傳統有所不同,甚至是離經叛道。他夠膽冒險、遠離黨派,利用本地人才經營其海外業務等。最近,島耕作更榮升為社長,他向員工提出的第一訊息,就是「Think Global!」,即是具備思考環球情況的能力,無論對日本的企業舵手,甚至商家和管理階層,也是一個挑戰。

(8月13日刊於《am730》)

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