Wednesday, September 03, 2008

藥對何症

日本上周五推出1,070億美元(約8,346億港元)刺激經濟措施,以應付不斷上升的能源費用及醞釀中的經濟衰退威脅,可惜首相福田康夫卻等不及好消息推出後所產生的效應,便捱不住落台,證明太遲才處理民生經濟這些基本問題,國民必會唾棄這些領袖。

另一個要下台的,會否是南韓總統李明博?該國周一也推出總值236億美元(約1,840億港元)的振興經濟方案,包括將兩個年度的入息稅,每年度減兩個百分點、置業人士減資本增值稅、公司利得稅至2011年,每年減5個百分點,以及藉稅務寬減以鼓勵科研等,整個措施為期5年,但整個方案等國會批准等手續完成,最快也要明年7月方能執行。

初步看,這份方案似乎是挽回民望,多過救經濟,因為南韓飽受高油價和原料價漲衝擊,8月貿易逆差高達30億美元(約234億港元)。除5月有順差外,今年其餘月份均現逆差,可見對經濟影響有多大。

更危言聳聽的是,當地憂慮陷入另一場金融危機,原來本月將有多達67.1億美元(約523.3億港元)的債券將到期,而這批債券持有人正是外資機構,若果悉數贖回,債券發行人或需拋售韓圜,以支付外國投資者的贖回要求,屆時韓圜勢必大幅貶值,財金部門更要大加利息以挽救貨幣,最終可能會迫使當地金融和商業機構走向倒閉之途。當然,政府要派定心丸的話,手頭還要有巨額儲備才可。

不過,南韓央行統計顯示,7月淨資本流出58億美元(約452億港元),為97年12月以來新高。更恐怖的是,該國外匯儲備排名全球第6位,實力非同小可,但有關儲備原來已連跌5個月,8月再減43.2億美元(約337億港元)至2,432億美元(約1.9萬億港元),成為十大外匯儲備國中,唯一出現倒退的國家。當地金融界估計,造成這種情況,與央行大力干預匯市有關,但似乎徒勞無功,韓圜匯價在8月飽受衝擊,兌美元累跌7.63%,在19隻主要貨幣中,跌幅仍屬第二大,恐怕跌勢難即時改變。

當地的投資信心已呈脆弱,「資金」只會逃難,待跌至極度低殘,甚至明顯谷底回升時,方會再進場。政府採取那些所謂減稅方案,相信未有對症下藥,如果衝擊湧至,公司倒閉,失業率上升,減稅已變成一個笑話,屆時戴上頭巾、握著拳頭,在街上叫李明博落台的口號就會此起彼落。

禤中怡曾說,香港處於美元資產區,理應成資金避難所,但像泰國引爆的亞洲金融風暴一樣,亞洲區國家根本難獨善其身,一向資金自由流通的香港可能會有「過水濕腳」機會,但最終仍有被拖累之虞。資金已先後在越南、台灣、巴基斯坦和俄羅斯進行洗倉行動,實在不可不防。

(9月3日刊於《am730》)

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