Thursday, August 28, 2008

風光背後

大市挾完可以再挾,故期指結算前夕,波動難免,恒指近日彈完又跌、跌完又彈,若果買錯邊,兼轉軚太慢,隨時兩邊也輸錢,昨日就有12隻熊證被強制收回。

藍籌股公布業績的,也已七七八八,目前形勢非一面倒,粗略計算,如滙豐控股(005)、長和系、東亞(023)、甚至兩隻中資保險股中國人壽(2628)和平安保險(2318)等,合共有13隻的中期業績均呈倒退情況,令人失望。另一批藍籌卻有不俗表現,像中國移動(941)中期盈利升45%,維持高增長,而建設銀行(939)、工商銀行(1398)和交通銀行(3328)等業績增長續強勁,令盈利報升的藍籌股有17隻之多。綜觀藍籌整體表現,上半年經營環境只是好壞參半。

好了,港股又好像有成交增加的情況,昨日有近610億元,但扣除窩輪和牛熊證的153億元成交額,只有457億元,實質未算太突出,相信部分更屬挾倉盤,故成交未算配合,由於缺乏真正好消息,小心結算完後又打回原形。

除藍籌外,中小型股份又見狂飆,最突出者,當然是蒙古能源(276),過去從18元一年高位,持續走低,直至本月初只剩8元,怎知跌勢加劇,上周更低見2.66元,持有該股的投資者真的嚇破膽,豈知隨即展開升空之旅,昨日暴漲24.3%至8.95元全日最高位收市,代表由低位回升2.3倍!而成交額亦逾3.2億元,可見背後大戶的功力絕不容小覷,皆因上演一幕大迴環的表演,肯定是今期的主角。

細價股更厲害,自04年12月中停牌的普納(1013),獲救復牌後,股價昨攀升41.6%至0.136元,其實只升了4仙而已,成交增至5,373萬元,但一手2,000股仍只需272元,難怪獲追捧,成交股數超過4.1億股,成為成交股份最多的第一名,但望望那些白武士用1仙認購該股的新股,相信最大贏家並非接貨的投資者。

還有四叔旗下隻恒基發展(097),單日大幅上揚至0.54元全日最高位收市,計一計數,升幅亦有18.6%,原來正洽售的資產終曝光,計劃賣所持杭州恒基錢江三橋60%股權予其合作夥伴也,有關磋商自3月尾已開始,轉眼快近半年,莫非好事近,所以惹垂青?但公司講明賣資產所得,主要用作新投資,意味無特別股息派送,所以要搞清楚葫蘆裡賣甚麼藥。

須注意的是,這些中小型股份雖然大彈,奈何市場資金未見大量湧至,成交集中於部分股份,即使有些細價股交投確有增加之勢,卻非大市全面造好,況且不少股份的股價其實在過去1年,已跌至低殘之極,所謂久旱逢甘露,故出現較顯著的反彈亦不足為奇,但中間有多少蟹貨區需要消化就未知,故不要以為股份價格低就等於抵買,更不要因為沉靜多時而過過「手癮」,始終「cash is king」。

(8月28日刊於《am730》)

14 Comments:

At 10:15 PM, Blogger Lik said...

藍籌股的業績唔可以看表面。A股市場不振,大量資金投入投紅險,中人壽絕對是賺大錢!中移動未來資本開支好大,看以好業績亦無法支持股價。建行及交銀A股有大量大小非,市場壓力十分大,蒙古能源陳振聰被被斬倉壹週刊都有賣,看看全世界資金流向,仍然是去緊美國,根據AMG數字,前周不計交易所買賣基金,美國的股票基金錄得淨流出2.86億美元,其中美國股票基金錄得淨流入5.78億美元,但國際股票基金錄得淨流出8.63億美元,亞洲包括香港近期好差,唔會升得去邊,所以藍籌業績支持唔到股價上升,我都只是散戶,你D料,邊有市場價值,想做分析員,唔想做演員,就請你做多D功課,不要只是看蘋果日報及報價機!

 
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