Thursday, September 04, 2008

搶灘的藝術

可口可樂出手「豪飲」滙源果汁(1886),竟然用近兩倍溢價出價,涉資達近200億元,的確夠進取,實有志在必得的氣蓋。

可口可樂敢用近26倍市盈率,去搶灘內地飲料市場,相信不外乎兩個原因。首先,大市氣氛差,現在似乎覺得獵物的價位已接近便宜,就算用這個價錢買入,或許不熟悉該行業的人會認為作價頗貴,但這些行內專業人士,定必發掘到有利的地方,趁價錢未大升前,早早把滙源果汁收歸旗下。

另一個原因,就是落後於人前,唯有靠併購去儘快進入市場。其實,同行百事(PepsiCo)近年積極拓展非碳酸飲料市場,特別是果汁飲料,如大家在超市見到的Tropicana品牌,早已在內地設廠生產,而另一品牌Naked Juice 亦早已被百事收購。

非碳酸飲料一直被視為未來增長來源,畢竟可樂這類汽水再大幅增長的空間已經有限,加上消費者對健康飲料的需求有增無減,即使內地消費者的口味,也大有機會邁向相同的方向發展。

由於獲高價收購,相關股份自然成為炒作對象,難免為一池死水的股市帶來些少生氣,相信市場又會無限憧憬一番,皆因外資加快拓展內地市場,又有得炒。

有投資者一向喜歡追捧可能被併購、或者會被私有化的股份,希望一鋪大賺,像今次併購交易一樣。要選擇潛在被併購對象的話,或者可留意創投基金有份參與投資的項目,因為他們會協助投資的公司壯大業務,然後安排上市,基金隨後在市場減持股份,甚至找買家接手,像創投基金「華平投資」於滙源果汁上市前已參與投資。

不過,能夠成功捕捉機會,兼且能把握合適時間的,幾稀矣,因何時出擊,按理採取保密策略,避免消息曝光,以致令收購成本大幅增加,君不見中國石化(386)旗下上市子公司經常傳出炒私有化嗎?但能夠守候到底的,又有幾人?併購最終能否成功,還要看兩間企業能否融合。記得美國電腦巨無霸惠普(HP)前CEO菲奧莉娜(Carly Fiorina)在其回憶錄《勇敢抉擇(Tough Choices)》中,曾經提及,惠普吞併對手Compaq康栢時,曾經進行稱為「cultural due diligence」,或可稱為「文化盡職審查程序」的步驟。

她認為,當一般企業在進行併購交易時,多只會注意財務或技術上的差異,但其實,亦需詳加檢討兩間企業的文化相異之處,故當時設立了22個小組作審核,避免無法整合,得不償失。至於滙源和可口可樂的中外聯婚,雖未知能否成功帶來效益,但起碼可口可樂的股東,即美國股神巴菲特終可變相間接投資內地。

(9月4日刊於《am730》)

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