Tuesday, September 09, 2008

官商的結合

香港立法會選舉落幕,繼續有人監察官商勾結,但那邊廂的美國卻表現「官商結合」。上周不是話經濟數據嚇驚人:失業率升、申領失業救濟金人數增加,股市立刻跌個四腳朝天,大戶基金齊齊幫手洗倉,現金水平(cash level)恐怕見新高。

美國政府高官隨即揀上周五收市後,陸續放風,話美國政府要接管困難重重的房貸機構房利美(Fannie Mae)和房地美(Freddie Mac),然後安排在周日推出震撼一擊,先叫亞洲股市彈起,等歐美股市接棒。

昨日香港期指淡倉率先慘遭挾爆,開市裂口爆上逾1,000點,補倉已叫人失魂,午後曾回落至20,600點附近,以為淡友反擊,原來再挾多近200點至最高位20,781點方收手。現貨也跟隨展現強力反彈,恒指抽上近20,800點,全日升860點。雖然這種補倉追貨的格局難持久,但整體成交額其實已連升四日,窩輪成交昨日更不升反跌,可見買貨者眾,像持有兩房債券投資的中國銀行(3988),大手交易逾970手,涉及成交股份逾6億股,特別是3時半過後,1球1球(即100萬股)掃入的成交比比皆是,升5.4%至3.48元收市。

這招連消帶打,確實是官商齊齊合作產生的效應,大戶基金早已拿著大堆現金準備,見到「好消息」配合,就可以即時發揮掃貨的威力,殺淡友一個片甲不留。

不要以為美國政府真的想攬兩房上身,查實同政治難分難解,美國總統選舉已逐步臨近,想連任的執政黨,當然要找尋托市方案,讓市場氣氛好轉,即使未能喜氣洋洋,起碼也要穩定民生最基本的樓市,故此持有當地樓市近半樓按的兩房便不能倒下,兼且要向供樓的業主大派定心丸。

今次美國財政部採用名為「conservatorship」,或者可解作為「委託管理」,安排聯邦住房融資機構(FHFA)去接管兩房,並非企業申請破產保護令,但究竟託管多久就無人知。當地有言論認為,有政府做支援,按揭息可望降低,甚至可將按揭年期拉長至45年!那時就不存在斷供情況!反正用納稅人的錢去救納稅人,但會否像當年日本樓市壯旺時期般,供兩代也未還清所有樓按?

另一個要救的,就是兩房發行的企業債券,以及由其擔保的按揭抵押債券,因為各國央行(香港金管局也話自己持有這類投資)和大型金融機構都有幫襯,倘若這些大客失去信心,齊齊沽貨離場,日後要拯救就更困難了。

至於這份帳單最終怎樣支付,待他日新總統上場,才研究怎樣拆彈好了。難怪有市場人士形容,經此一役,儘管美國樓市現時已走出急症室,但只是轉入深切治療部,繼續要密切留意和需多加醫治,至於何時可以轉去普通病房,就更是「天曉得」。

(9月9日刊於《am730》)

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