Tuesday, September 30, 2008

風暴小插曲

海嘯冚過頭就完,風暴卻連吹多時依然未散,兼且牽連範圍廣而深,且看歐洲富通、英國B&B也出事,隨後花旗終出手買Wachovia的銀行業務,更講明限蝕金額,其餘由聯邦儲蓄保險公司「包底」,果然慢慢等執便宜貨。大市仍在急救狀態,入市請小心。

或許太緊張,不妨分享些「風暴」小插曲。由於今次美國金融風暴吹過來的威力確實非同小可,連家庭主婦也會講兩句:「點解嗰兩兄弟咁衰,搞到全球股市都跌晒!」,她提及的兩兄弟,其實是雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)也,無疑,這間公司於1850年成立時,的確是由Henry Lehman和他的兄弟Emanuel和Mayer共3人建立,今日這些兄弟的後人還持有多少股份就不得而知,肯定的是,不會靠兄弟們就可拖垮這間巨型投資銀行吧!

此外,華爾街大行陷困境,連紐約中菜餐館亦受打擊,皆因少了一批穿行政套裝的顧客。在地球另一面的英國金融區,高檔餐廳亦難捱下去。記得尖沙咀洲際酒店內的著名日本餐廳Nobu嗎?原來他們在倫敦有3間門市,可惜位處Canary Wharf的UBON分店,已於上周五結束營業,附近商廈有雷曼兄弟、滙控(005)、花旗和摩根士丹利等公司員工,經過洗禮後,花得起錢的投資賓架不是消失了、就是要勒緊肚皮。香港貴為紐倫港,高檔飲食業會否很快步後塵,遇上這股寒流呢?

本港雷曼迷你債券的苦主先嚐苦果,日日遊行示威,冀盡快回水,可惜一間公司步向清盤,處理需時,加上雷曼在港業務大幅萎縮,確實要耐心等候。迷你債券其實因雷曼兄弟停止運作才出事,最有趣的是,據聞連受託人滙豐都未見過這種場面,真要拿出份文件,望清楚才知下一步行動。這批迷你債券用上抵押債務證券(CDO)做抵押,一般來說,持有迷你債券的投資者應不用輸掉全副身家,只要出售抵押品套現便可,而且這種產品和雷曼本身債務無關。可惜的是,現時風頭火勢,若果不理情況便沽售,恐怕可收回的金額會令人失望。回想起7月底美林兩折出售自己個CDO組合,當中美林還提供部分貸款予買家,試問其他CDO價值怎不江河日下,甚至將雷曼兄弟拖垮呢!

其實,所謂「債券」,真的等同與「穩陣」劃上等號嗎?若果如此,就不需要評級機構評定每隻債券信貸質素,甚至有垃圾債券(Junk Bond)這種產物,何況是次迷你債券,這些實際上只是衍生工具!

有人話,今次金融風暴中,哪一個只顧嬌妻而不顧手足之情?答案原來是美國政府,皆因只顧救「兩房」(妾侍),也不救「兄弟」。希望這個黑色笑話能紓解大家輸錢的情緒。

(9月30日刊於《am730》)

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