Wednesday, September 17, 2008

股壇長毛教睇財困股

周一凌晨,特意看著彭博電視,只見道指尾市從跌400點一直走低,完全無法收窄跌幅,最後埋單不見了500點,已知道港股昨日重創可期,睡得也不甜。

金融風暴捲到美國國際集團(AIG)翻天覆地,看似又是一間金融機構面對經營困難,但該集團亦有涉足保險業務,不期然憂慮,狂風是否已吹向最保守的保險公司呢?只見宏利金融(945)股價昨日也不見了7.9%,令人心寒。

不過,彈藥足的企業就肯定笑呵呵,摩拳擦掌,準備執平貨,像巴克萊(Barclays)不買雷曼兄弟,等後者終要申請破產保護令後,才施施然慢慢揀,等買心頭好的業務,財困股無還價能力,只好待宰。

其實,財困股也有蛛絲馬跡可尋,且於5月中拋下港交所(388)獨立非執行董事職務的股壇長毛David Webb,最新鮮滾熱辣的話題,就是教大家認識財困股。他引用借巨債的宜進利(304)為例。其實,該股陷入萬劫不復的境地,加上已委任臨時清盤人,想救回一命,相信要花很大氣力,股東起碼有一段長時間持有股票而動彈不得。

David Webb話若果肯望年報,就可以發現避開投資這隻股份的訊號。佢話,曾經是聯洲(048)聯營公司的宜進利,在08年度的年報中披露,有一項總值高達3.2億元的長期按金,細心一看,包括向業務聯營公司存入1.36億元,作為聯合發展用途,並準備於未來一年注入合營公司內。另一筆1.9億元則供發展亞洲零售連鎖網絡,兼預期3月底起兩年間不會變現,但最有趣的是,兩筆款項均為無抵押,只按最優惠利率加1厘計息,難怪David Webb質疑這筆資金究竟如何運用,而所謂「業務聯營公司」又是甚麼商業性質,總之充滿疑團。

正當大家注視宜進利的高負債問題時,David Webb又發現該集團的貿易應付帳目,原來已露出破綻,直至今年3月底,貿易應付帳總額10.4億元,增加5.9倍,尚未到期的佔4.6億元,但需注意的是,只要在年度截數日期前,賒數期即使只餘兩至三天,依然不視作逾期。至於逾期的5.77億元中,已逾期91至180日的,涉2.3億元,而逾期180日以上的,亦達2.08億元,可見肯讓宜進利逾期多時,也不用償還這些巨額貿易帳的客戶,確實是慷慨萬分。最令人嘖嘖稱奇的是,在貿易應付帳中,以瑞士法郎計算的,涉及7.1億港元,若果這筆巨大金額來自那些瑞士鐘錶商的話,究竟他們要賣多少隻名錶,方可賺回這筆金額呢?

講到最諷刺的,還是在宜進利年報內,股壇長毛特別提及,原來有多達14間證券行及分析師,給予「買入」評級,當中不乏高盛、德意志、摩根大通、美林和瑞銀等大行,可見普遍散戶也輸得心甘命抵啦!

(9月17日刊於《am730》)

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