Thursday, September 18, 2008

黑洞與逃亡

近期熱門的詞語應該是甚麼?「黑洞」及「逃亡」也!黑洞者,就是美國政府表現親疏有別,不救雷曼,卻走去救兩房和AIG,而所付代價恐怕成為金融黑洞一樣,有入無出,兼且不知何時能夠徹底解決問題。

至於逃亡,就是近期全球股市被大戶強力拋售般,紛紛撤退,有幾多執幾多。除了港股,不同範疇也出現逃亡潮,有趣一點的,就是商業電台近期有節目主持人齊齊跳車,多人知道的,當然是蘇絲黃,因為走入熒光幕,以及網上世界。其他著名的主持人,還有「情朗」的盧覓雪和芝C菇Bee(卓韻芝),相信有新落腳點吧!

近期要逃亡的,還有買了AIA保險的客戶,斷單套現離場,不用擔驚受怕。禤中怡難言公司一定穩陣(連美國巨型金融機構實力也可如此單薄),但本港法例較嚴謹,保險公司經營狀況應較佳,故退保前,應考慮究竟損失多少等,還要考慮購回應有保障的開支,以免得不償失!

提起AIG,近日同商界朋友在中環午膳後,大家途經那幢玻璃幕牆的甲級商廈AIG Tower,自然想到林二少當年如何進取,69億元豪奪傅厚澤家族的富麗華酒店,可惜碰上金融風暴,地產不值錢,二少檔麗新發展(488)負債實在吃力,只好找外援幫手,最後有美國國際集團(AIG)這個大企業落疊,還有新加坡嘉德置地,以當時風頭火勢而言,多少有冒險成分,因為不知道資產價值何時見底,隨時買貴貨。不過,AIG Tower於05年落成後經濟好轉,證明AIG眼光不錯,並在07年9月買入嘉德置地所持樓面,成為擁有九成業權的大股東,麗展則仍持餘下一成。當時物業估值已達80億元,今日肯定更高。但萬料不到,今日陷財困的卻是AIG自己,未知會否趁勢沽貨獲巨利離場呢?

商界朋友又說出一個與AIG邂逅的故事,原來他曾被AIG Private Bank的一名營業代表邀請,共進午餐,地點竟是AIG Tower其中一層的公司內部餐廳,望出去盡覽灣仔和九龍一帶海景,認真心曠神怡。這頓絕非普通午宴,那位賓架在這種氣氛下,推介投資產品,前菜竟然是Accumulator(累計股票期權),商界朋友話左望右望也不明所以,最終無下聞。

賓架立刻拿出甜品,就是存款,息率夠優惠,而金額由一球起,即100萬,貨幣單位是美元,對私人銀行來說,濕濕碎也。未知商界朋友是否只顧窗外景色吸引,抑或美食麻麻,始終沒有答應撥多少供那位賓架打理。

一年過去,商界朋友話當時沒有任何決定,可能是最明智的決定。禤中怡卻話,私人銀行也有法律規管,投資者有保障,不要見人家吃苦就落井下石,時刻要緊記歷史是會重演的。

(9月18日刊於《am730》)

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