Wednesday, October 08, 2008

連鎖爆破

踏入10月,秋意漸濃,大家記緊準備衣物免著涼。不過,一道寒流從背後吹過來,皆因環球經濟已陷入黑洞階段,即愈救愈艱難,即使如何出招,經黑洞一吸,甚麼威力也消失殆盡。見到歐洲影響範圍甚廣,相信亞洲區惡化程度將加劇,注意!

本來想談內地推出融資融券試點計劃,即准借孖展買股票,以及借貨沽空兩種新投資方法,但有些更緊急的事情實在不能拖延,就是股市經歷大幅調整後,部分上市公司本身的質素,以及有關公司的大股東財政質素也產生變化,有必要分享現時情況。

禤中怡也估不到銀行之間的信心會消失得那麼快,大家不願拆借,保留多點資金應付突發情況。面對這種場面,試問銀行對上市公司的借貸態度何嘗不會改變?曾經指負債高的公司要避開,恐怕「落雨收遮」的日子更快來臨,若果現金流並非健全的話,有關上市公司定必受影響。

另一個更恐怖的隱藏危機是,有些上市公司老闆,私人總喜歡參與投資,部分更炒到不亦樂乎,或許是愛拼才會贏的性格,才建立今日的公司規模,有些更進取的,早已將所持股權抵押套現,加大投資注碼,希望財富加速膨脹。禤中怡曾聽聞有上市公司老闆將剛掛牌不久的股份作抵押,然後去炒樓,下場當然是損手而回,連股權最終也不保。

歷史又快重演了,聽聞有些愛炒股的老闆,在今年這個大跌市中,輸錢的多,禤中怡了解所知,有些更輸掉數千萬元。若果那些老闆太進取,恐怕已焦頭爛額,而更嚴重的是,那些老闆抵押的股份價值也隨大市向下,若無法及時補倉,債權人肯定又將爆斬倉潮,股價勢必暴挫,分分鐘連控制權亦易手,讓其他等待獵物的餓狼吞噬。

所以,不要以為股價大瀉,就想撈底博反彈,皆因一隻股份出現如此急速下跌,必定是有些事情是閣下不知的,若勇進等反彈,隨時遇上股份暫停買賣而陷入進退失據的地步,等股份復牌(但不一定能復牌),更可能變得遙遙無期。當然,要看那些上市公司老闆將股份抵押,認真困難,故此個人色彩濃厚的,不沾手為妙,畢竟這次金融黑洞規模龐大,要在短時間內回氣已難,要逃離黑洞就更是談何容易,若果看不通,就不要貿然入市,否則也會被黑洞吸走。

另一個需注意的趨勢,就是今趟相信有些上市公司將陷困境,借錢予有關公司的銀行恐怕也要面對撇帳的風險,加上非利息業務經雷曼兄弟的迷你債券一役蹂躪,賣投資產品的生意,定必受影響,再碰上拆息高企而收窄息差,銀行股已面對兩面受敵情況。

(10月8日刊於《am730》)

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