Thursday, October 02, 2008

經濟衰退三部曲

近期最熱門的財金人物,非美國財長保爾森(Henry Paulson)莫屬,連股神巴菲特本新書《THE SNOWBALL》風頭也被保爾森蓋過。保爾森更登上財經雜誌封面,如《bloomberg markets》,最調刺的是《經濟學人》(The Economist),用美國國家象徵的森姆叔叔(Uncle Sam)為造型,配上保爾森的頭顱,凸着眼說:「I want your money」,將主題一針見血地展示出來。

森姆叔叔的海報原文是:「I Want You For The U.S. Army」,希望鼓勵美國人參軍打第一次世界大戰。估不到在90年後,又要國民奉獻,今次不用賠上性命,只要口袋中的血汗錢而已。再看看美國總統喬治布殊另一種經濟威脅論,但議員卻不願讓步,布殊唯有繼續將壞消息講得更差,迫議員盡快就範,總之舉手做橡皮圖章便可,否則將責任推給議員承擔,究竟算不算是一種經濟恐怖主義。

最大問題是,大家愈來愈憂慮,這種所謂救市方案,根本難改善經濟,只是將問題滯後發生而已,加上全球經濟早已被摧殘得七零八落,大筆財富慘遭蒸發,勢將影響日後復甦的動力,加上齊齊不願借貸,所以無論救市方案能否通過,大家都肯定遇上經濟收縮的場面。

摩根士丹利亞洲主席史提芬.羅奇(Stephen S. Roach)昨日竟當了內地《財經》的特約記者,以《“後泡沫世界”的陷阱》為題,其中提到經濟衰退三部曲,信貸危機是第一階段,不同於十年前的亞洲金融危機,複雜的投資工具及結構型產品特性,「傳染」了離岸投資者,使這場危機罕見地滋生了「既跨產品又跨境」情況。

第二階段是信貸及住宅樓市內部爆破對美國經濟實體的影響,未來兩三年,消費增長率將減半至2%,而美國經濟陷入衰退。期間縱有幾個季度或高於2%水平,但這種反彈對於「後泡沫時代」的美國消費者而言,猶如曇花一現。

第三階段是美國消費業及世界其他國家之間的貿易關係開始發揮負面影響。因訂貨及跨境運輸滯後,料宏觀調整應持續至09年,更可能擴散至2010年,對經濟構成打擊。

他更警告,全球大部分地區股市呈現熊市,容易令人以為最壞的時刻已過去,但預測全球股市下一波將出現重大調整,因為經濟增長放緩,熊市對象可能從金融機構,轉向收益受影響的非金融機構。

他又不確定中線債券市場的前景,而美元匯價將在年底前維持強勢,之後受美國龐大的經常帳赤字拖累,導致在2009年重新恢復下跌趨勢。商品市場方面,羅奇認為未來一年,對經濟變化較為敏感的商品如石油、基礎金屬及其他工業原料價格將顯著回落,但農產品及貴金屬也許會例外。或許他的預警,更加值得留意。

(10月2日刊於《am730》)

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