Tuesday, November 11, 2008

溫總的高招

全球忙於無限量注資救市和入股銀行等之際,溫總卻體察民情,將資源投放予內部經濟,改善民生,大市立刻響應造好,再次證明政策市的威力非同小可。

話雖溫總無叫買股票,但見到投資者湧入追貨買國企股,無論是基建、建材、資源股統統掃入,國企股指數單日升9.1%,在42隻國指成分股中,剛好有一半的股份,其股價錄得雙位數字增幅,連近期話減產的中國鋁業(2600)都要升18.9%,投資者支持度可見一斑。

相反,恒指表現相對失色,再破15,000點後又再回落,始終無法企穩在該水平以上收市,報14,744點,全日只升3.5%。無他,一隻滙豐控股(005)差點拖低大市,因為開市直線向下,更一度跌穿90元關口,但中午前重越該水平,勉強微升0.3%,可見淡友無謂同溫總拗氣,等消化落重藥刺激經濟的因素後,才出手推低獅子銀行,因為有業績認真麻麻做藉口嘛!

其實,作為一份如此重要的報告,國務院無理由會開一個會,就拍板拿出如此巨大金額,若果望望中央政府早在「十一五規劃」中,就鐵路發展的資料,當中已包括在2006年至2010年的5年間,安排交通部對包括公路和水路的交通基礎建設總投資約3.8萬億元人民幣,較上一個5年計劃期增長73%,假設平均每年花7,600億元人民幣,兩年已經是1.52萬億元人民幣,那麼當中又有多少包含在溫總拋出的4萬億元人民幣之內呢?

此外,放寬銀行借貸限制、甚至撥款災後重建也屬舊聞,但經其再包裝,就會出現像曾特首的十大基建概念,從而瘋狂推高建築股般情況出現,而且是次買貨的瘋狂程度更甚,儘管國務院已經落實,但仍需注意執行時間表和投入資源的程度,始終炒概念難長久,如有關受惠企業欠盈利的實質數字支持,影響最後仍會反映在股價上。

從政治層面看,溫總選擇提高城鄉居民收入等,變相採取由下而上的經濟推動方式,始終比起將寶貴的資金買入海外的股票等升值,效益可能更高,亦避免萬一經濟增長真的大幅放慢,屆時要起死回生就更為困難。

另一個好處,就是見到亞洲股市亦造好,各方亦歡迎內地大手花錢,皆因大家又有生意機會嘛!相信中國在亞洲經濟領域的地位已再升一級,若果是次刺激經濟方案能夠惠及身邊的貿易夥伴,有機會讓亞洲盟國能夠減輕和縮短美國經濟衰退帶來的陣痛,更可成為區內的領頭羊。

更重要的原因,當然還有穩定內部矛盾的作用,且看內地政府表明會提高收購糧食的最低價格等措施,明顯將財富從發達地區流向經濟落後的地區,冀安撫當地的居民,否則生活困苦到極點,農民會否反抗呢?

(11月11日刊於《am730》)

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