Wednesday, November 19, 2008

最緊要有份工

溫總的救市方案亦難敵全球經濟衰退潮,恒指上周無法穿15,000點後,就被淡友圍攻,一仆一碌地走低,相信在高位又困住一批蟹民了。儘管恒指昨日僅微跌13點,上下波幅也有461點,上午更表演跌破13,300點後,一口氣衝上去,立即抽上13,738點高位,可惜成交根本未配合,殺退部分即日鮮淡友後,就打回原形,成交額只有不足400億元,返回去年3月水平,當中更有逾121億元來自窩輪和牛熊證的成交額!

成交少,大家依然有得炒,憧憬內地基建多,兼且改革增值稅後,買設備股有著數,立刻刺激做變電設備的東北電氣(042)大升67.5%至0.67元,果然是細細粒容易炒,成交額也逾3,500萬元,懶理集團早前講盈利預警,講明今年要蝕1億元人民幣的消息。
至於今日關注的焦點,必然是銀行股表現,本來高盛高層話放棄拿今年的花紅,好像勇於承擔,查實業績有幾好,大家心知肚明,有否花紅也成問題,之後瑞銀(UBS)也加入高層凍結花紅行列,相信陸續有來。

不過,之前提及的裁員潮翻滾而來,湧得相當急,昨晚花旗集團(CitiGroup)更準備再裁5萬名員工,這種急急進行的行動,反映管理層收縮規模的步伐認真慢之餘,也必然對市場構成恐慌的情緒,相信會反映在大市身上。
見到美國財長保爾森出來挺消費信貸市場,可見次按問題還未收拾完,手上的煲蓋(不是有7,000億美元嗎?)也不夠冚熄燒到乾水的其他大煲,當這批高級賓架失業,消費市場爆煲實屬正常,大家不用感到突然。

禤中怡見到獅子銀行也出手裁減本港450人,立刻找賓架朋友問候一番,幸好他話職位得保,但規模之大,只能以「恐怖」形容這種場面,因為內部重組自9月檢討後,除前線投資銷售人員遭殃外,從未試過裁減如此數量的員工。

他又料其中一個重災區,並非前線營業部,反而是後勤的電腦系統和資訊科技部門,皆因這兩個部門將會合併成為一個,他更危言聳聽地話,聽聞每4個就有1個無得留低,認真慘烈。

其實,去年市場風光明媚,銀行管理層招兵買馬實屬正常,故市況逆轉,自然要瘦身,兼且好向股東交代,證明自己確實已經做足功夫,奈何市況不濟,也莫奈何。

賓架朋友更話,今年花紅肯定凍過水,因為去年市況佳,為08年所制定的營業指標,必也不會太低,可惜踏入第四季後,生意有幾差,相信不用多講,怎不凍過水。禤中怡聽到這番說話,也無言以對,豈知他補充話,其實無花紅也不重要,最緊要有份工,希望大家能夠共度時艱。人易滿足,生活總會較易過。

(11月18日刊於《am730》)

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