Thursday, December 18, 2008

內地拋救生圈

美國狠勁減0.75厘息,更使出一招目標聯邦基金利率範圍為0至0.25厘,實屬創新表演,會後聲明更多了些新的意見,最重要是繼續救市。既然無息可減,唯有想方法向市場泵水,難怪早前有報道話,聯儲局想發債集資,應付市場資金需要,總之盡用法寶。

禤中怡見到美股受消息刺激,即時抽上近百點,道指穿破8,800點,豈知在該位爭持不下,足足近半小時,悶局一場,唯一是美元匯價開始向下,已經心知不妙,但睡意太濃,只好鳴金收兵。

為何不妙?因為朋友準備往日本旅遊,偏無暇往銀行兌換日圓,禤中怡義不容辭,幫手解決這個問題。銀行櫃位員姐姐報價:100日圓兌8.79港元,較前一日的8.5港元足足升了3%,認真恐怖,豈知姐姐又叫道:「8.801啦!」,以為櫃位員變交易員般,禤中怡立即著她先定價,才處理兌換手續,雖然金額並非太大,但經此一漲,真替朋友擔心,手拿的日圓不敷使用。

市場多認為聯儲局大減利率,反映衰退較預期嚴重,查實屬預料之內,而未來大家要留意美國政府的財政政策如何救市。不過,金融市場似乎還未穩定,且看大摩第四季業績還要繼續輸錢,最大問題是所蝕金額逾22億美元(約171億港元),即每股蝕2.24美元,較分析員預測的0.34美元,足足多5.5倍,試問怎不嚇散美股。

更令人憂慮的是,該集團披露,經調整後的槓桿比率,雖然由07年度的17.6倍,降至現時的8倍,反映之前沽貨拆倉之情況有多急促,奈何由投資銀行轉變為一間金融控股公司後,這個槓桿比率水平會否續調低,以符合做傳統存貸業務的特性,而這種情況引用在其他變身的投資銀行來說,是否意味拆倉潮尚未完結呢?

當然,之前談到中資股與非中資股走勢背馳情況未變,不理美國衰退,且看內地又落重藥,推出救樓市政策,加上市場又話要等中國人民銀行減息,國企股指數自然又升3.8%,再比恒指的2.1%全日升幅為高。若果看個別股份表現,就知道走勢更厲害,投資者找建材股埋手,在藍籌股中,以中國鋁業(2600)彈13.5%至4.88元,成為升幅最大藍籌股,至於其他受惠股份方面,中國建材(3323)亦見交投旺,成交額逾8.3億元,打入全日最高成交額的第10位,比平安保險(2318)和中國財險(2328)的成交額還要多,而股價亦絕不失禮,全日升14%至9.01元。

獲政府打救的內房股表現就更驚人,合生創展(754)股價單日就升20%至5.46元,成為升幅最大的內房股,甚至連隻做內地物業代理的合富輝煌(733)股價也被抽上20.5%至0.94元,但成交額只有871萬元,恐防屬沾沾光而已。

內地政府逐步推出救市措施,之前已惠及銀行和保險股,今番向地產發展商拋救生圈,意味下一輪續有其他行業獲照顧,相信大家又要做功課。

(12月18日刊於《am730》)

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