Wednesday, December 10, 2008

貴價研討會的秘訣

一場金融海嘯,相信不少人損手爛腳,以為大家對投資會怕怕,但發現情況並非如此。在上周末,禤中怡走去聽投資研討會,想多點了解專家的意見,而其中一位專家,就是近來加入《am730》專欄作家行列的財經評論員王sir是也。

王sir在收費電視台開咪,fans自然與日俱增,故此到場後,已發覺人氣著實不低,愈坐愈多人,粗略估計,以座椅排列計算,即使無800人,相信有700人出席也不算太誇張。大家可能會話,無論投資市場情況怎樣,投資研討會總不會受冷落!但不可不知,這個投資研討會要付入場費的,每張盛惠480元!無錯,一張大牛只找回兩張花蟹而已,若果人人買票入場,一場門票收入豈不是超過33萬元!

當然,夠膽收得這個價錢,王sir也交足功課兼無冷場,甚至找5個財經專家講解,正如他所言,張學友演唱會門票都收400元,但最多只能令人興奮兩個小時,但他的見解可讓觀眾興奮1年、甚至幾年,認真風趣。未知是否要付費關係,抑或入場觀眾認真對待這次投資研討會,寫筆記的比比皆是,絕對不是來消磨時間的。

究竟他們是怎樣看經濟前景呢?還有甚麼股份值得投資呢?商品市場走勢如何?禤中怡當然亦有做功課。時富金融資料研究部董事羅尚沛認為,國企的H股有機會跑贏內地A股,要揀就要選支柱股如內地銀行、電訊和保險股,因為政府無理由讓他們倒下吧!

以策略投資的另一專家湯美則提出幾個投資重點,首先,不要買高市盈率股票,有些超過18倍的就要避開;不買莊家股、不買夕陽工業。至於買股票的話,就要選有前景的,如是次內地政府所推刺激經濟措施,基建股料受惠;選擇派股息穩定的,或每年穩定增加股息金額的,如恒生銀行(011)在過去一年相對輸得少(禤中怡計一計,今年以來股價累跌了33.6%)。

王sir更以是福非禍形容現時投資環境,如美國經濟於明年中有望復元,因油價回落不少,按揭息亦下降,口袋裡的錢多了,消費能力自然增加,至於內地救市不斷,肯定「有排玩」,所以在短期而言,即6至9個月間,可以考慮買中國龍頭股,特別是銀行、資源和保險股。他更打趣說,中國人喜歡講嘢,市旺要講,市跌就要「呻」,故中國移動(941)生意點會差呀!

他又話,近期內地趕走熱錢後,人民幣匯價回落,但長遠看,中央政府仍希望吸納屬於直接投資的外國資金(Foreign direct investment ,FDI),而並非純粹炒作的資金,故此有錢的話,現在不妨儲些人民幣等升值,也是一個不錯的選擇。

他又認為儲點實金,如買金條也可等價格向上,而各國印銀紙救市,故中期來說,即1至2年間,必再誘發通脹,油價必再次攀升,現在40美元已見低位也,必定再上100美元。當然,投資不能單看篇文章就算,記緊做功課呀!

(12月10日刊於《am730》)

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