Tuesday, December 16, 2008

南亞礦業處處耐人尋味

又到倒數時候,但並非迎接新一年,而是一個騙局就讓多達500億美元(約3,900億港元)財富消失,連滙控(005)也為客戶投資這個騙局而提供融資達10億美元(約78億港元),日後能否收回亦是巨大疑問,何況其他金融機構參與投資,日後需作撇帳所構成的連鎖影響,會怎樣令投資市場再起波瀾。

至於昨晚又見到亞洲電視高層表演辭職風波,真的比他們播映的劇集更具戲味,兼峰迴路轉,相信其他傳媒又有得煩。

股市一樣有令人耐人尋味的故事,以為南亞礦業(705)成為今年最後一隻新股上市之際,竟然將掛牌日期由今日延遲至本月22日,因為要將招股價從1.18元下調至1.05元,自己減價11%,又添變數。令人費解的是,該股上周截止認購後,原來公開發售部分已超額1.8倍,又話配售部分初步獲悉數認購,那麼為何仍要在臨門一腳,突然自己減價呢?該股解釋,金融市場動盪和不利市況,才決定減價,但該集團於11月20日公布招股前,大市如何波動,相信你我已清楚,莫非只有該集團的保薦人不清楚?

該股又話要讓已申請認購的投資者考慮是否繼續「去馬」,至於無申請認購的投資者就沒有參與認購的機會了。不過,既然招股價已下調,所有數據需調整,為何只能讓已申請的投資者作選擇。為公平起見,何不重新招股,讓其他投資者也可重新考慮?反正該股用19天的特長招股期(即使中國南車(1766)發行A加H股上市,其H股才用6天招股而已),哪怕多等一會。

禤中怡重申,並非話該股值得投資,只是考慮公平問題。即使有投資機會,亦要望清楚公司基本因素方可落疊。該股原本才集資1.33億元,但上市費用原來就要4,100萬元,即上市成本佔集資額的30.8%,估不到減招股價後,上市費用仍要3,700萬元,但集資額則縮減至1.18億元,即上市成本佔集資額的31.3%之高,代表每集資1元,有3角多是用作上市的,實際落袋的有限,真是慘不忍睹。

好了,該股料集資淨額更只有逾8,094萬元,以一隻所謂礦業股來說,金額認真濕碎,為何仍肯照上如儀,真的是多多益善,小小無拘?原來招股文件話,直至9月底現金及有關等值物只有71.3萬元!分分鐘一間中小企也比該股為多,但該股預測今年10月1日至2010年12月底期間,可獲收取的現金款項達10.394億元,但當中有約2.8億元其實為貸款,又要假設產品銷售價企穩、又要廠房能夠以一定產能運作方可獲得這筆款項,代表處處有變數。

最有趣的是,在該段期間需支付的現金就要9.694億元之多,那麼所集資的金額真的夠用嗎?能否應付未來還款需要呢?總之是一大串問號等投資者決定。不過,所謂股價有升有跌,他日股價暴升,大家可能會責罵禤中怡危言聳聽,但所謂現金為王,倒不如將筆錢買份聖誕禮物好過。

(12月16日刊於《am730》)

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