Wednesday, December 31, 2008

為大行預測算算帳

估不到年尾好戲連場,首先是電訊盈科(008)大股東在臨門一腳突然話加碼,將每股私有化作價加3角,希望增加勝算,認真神奇,未知股東特別大會的開支是否由大股東支付呢?

隨後港交所(388)迎戰延長董事禁止買賣股份期限的反對聲音,以為只有執行或擱置新例,怎料港交所卻話考慮到通知期不足,所以將執行時間改為明年4月1日起才實施,實行將問題推遲解決,相信發功人士定必再有進一步行動。見到這兩場好戲於09年繼續上演,肯定劇情將會高潮迭起,不容錯過。

至於港股年尾走勢,就更是令人驚歎,相信滿地眼鏡碎。翻看資料,年初花旗睇恒指今年見31,250點,里昂和美林更料見36,000點,而之前最樂觀的瑞銀更曾話有機會見42,000點,最低也有32,000點,即使後來修訂合理價值為28,500點,可惜他們看好的預測,始終未見出現,相反卻是輾轉向下,恒指更曾迫近10,000點,然後在最後兩個月,才有一個小型反彈而已。

所謂反彈,就是從低位回升,並非全面造好,因為又是內地幫手,推出刺激經濟措施,才有較像樣的升勢,可惜前景暗淡,你我都知,衰退迫埋身外,大家最憂慮的通縮陰影揮之不去,因為大家等價格回落才消費,經濟怎樣有起色呢?屆時股市表現又會如何反映這種景況?

恒指全年計,的確很重傷,以昨日收市報14,235點計,一年間就失去近49%,若果望望國企股指數就更恐怖,全年跌去了51.7%,如果同亞洲區其他股市比較,無疑比深證指數和上證指數的逾62.9%和65%跌幅為佳,一向被視為競爭對手的新加坡,其海峽時報指數也大幅下挫49.1%,算是難兄難弟。

有趣的是,大家定必以為次按和金融海嘯的源頭美國,其股市好不到哪裡,但以本月29日道瓊斯工業平均指數收市計,其實全年才跌了36%!比亞洲區股市動輒跌四成以上為佳,可見爛船也有三斤釘。

另一個表現相對較佳的,就是英國富時100指數,計一計,一年只回落33%,與區內德國DAX和法國巴黎CAC40指數分別跌了41%和44%比較,不算太差了。

除亞洲區股市差外,新興市場同樣被洗倉,引致巴西和阿根廷股市指數分別下降了42%和49%,可見拆倉潮的威力,以及歐美資金需班師回朝,令亞洲和新興市場的波動更為巨大,相反資金回流,多少對歐美股市有幫助。

禤中怡無意預測股市可以到達甚麼水平,畢竟連外資大行的分析師對08年股市也有如此大的偏差,根本難作估計,還可以寄望甚麼呢?況且投資其實並非單看一個數字就可以一目了然,最重要是設止蝕位外,亦要減輕利用借貸作為投資的資金,而目前首先是要「做好呢份工或呢盤生意」,繼續累積資本,日後方有彈藥迎接投資良機。禤中怡先恭祝《am730》讀者新年快樂,身體健康!

(12月31日刊於《am730》)

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