Thursday, January 15, 2009

魔笛吹到你暈

港股經過六連跌後,終於見反彈,午後更一度輕輕穿破14,000點,可惜升勢始終似有若無,之後更從高位直插逾300點,所有升幅差不多全部「蒸發」,最後收市僅微微彈36點,見13,704點,走勢認真麻麻。

無他,隻大笨象滙豐控股(005)再遭摩根士丹利吹笛唱淡,話目標價由75元大劈至只剩52元,足足不見了30%,試問欠缺大笨象托住,大市又怎有明顯向上動力,反而連同阿仔恒生銀行(011)的股價雙雙滑落,一齊推低恒指近90點。

有趣的是,摩根士丹利昨日才助蘇格蘭皇家銀行(RBS)配售中國銀行(3988)股份,同時那邊的分析部又發出關於滙控的看淡研究報告,真的湊巧。更難得的是,中行大批股份上板後,中行股價不跌反升,見1.9元收市,代表接貨的機構性投資者,每股帳面已賺0.19元,帳面回報達11%,確是無寶不落。

至於慘遭被質的滙控當然是另一個樣,特別是在午後3時45分左右,股價終穿70元關口後,即見大戶在70元擺位頂住,但有手6.8萬股,以69.95元拋出,成476萬元,然後齊齊質低,5分鐘後更有大戶用69.9元沽11.3萬股,足足近8球錢,之後大戶就在這1元之間激烈爭持,最後在收市競價時段,有230萬股交投,涉資達1.6億元,能夠企在70元收市。

投資者應該要了解,儘管滙控未有被國有化,經營策略相對較靈活,不會被綁手綁腳,但面對市場撇帳落手之狠,滙控也難獨善其身,盈利難睇恐怕已成事實,故此要習慣不再是「紅底股」之外,還要預期未來生意會繼續難做,且看近期銀行的廣告推廣,不外乎存款和保險等,就知道銀行業務,難再走出傳統框框,而滙控的美國業務仍續救亡,因此在負面消息頻傳情況下,大戶要合力「造低」佢,根本非難事。

此外,今次魔笛追魂,多少反映銀行股繼續被睇淡,特別是國際性銀行。禤中怡上月中曾憂慮,銀行的槓桿比率仍高企,那邊廂的德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)率先話自己大減磅,故此第四季要蝕48億歐元(約490億港元),引致全年虧損高達39億歐元(約398億港元),代表將首三季盈利全部蒸發之餘,還要「輸凸」,令市場震驚。該行話,在最後一季,又要做減少槓桿比率的大手術,除撇帳進取外,槓桿貸款亦大為收縮,還要令該行收購當地Postbank的交易,要改為分三期完成,並且需發行新股支付部分代價,蓋因欠水也!

金融海嘯於去年第四季洶湧而至,銀行本身亦難脫身,故他們輸錢流血情況,似乎尚未停止,恐怕會蔓延至今年第一季,仍然要繼續撇、撇、撇,因為要減低槓桿比率,絕非能夠在短時間內完成。

若果金融股難看好,大市自然亦要跟隨向下,故這場海嘯仍然在席捲,小心被捲走。所以之前叫大家累積多點資本,方可有彈藥,等待機會入市。

(1月15日刊於《am730》)

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