Wednesday, February 18, 2009

上市公司的另類特殊利潤

東亞銀行(023)份08年度業績全靠左找右挖特殊收益,去為投資債務抵押證券(CDO)而損失的35億元填氹,避免全年「見紅」,但場面已相當驚險,例如有一項重估已發行債券盈利高達26.2億元,真是花盡心機。

其實,特殊利潤確可掩飾本身核心業務的不濟,最新的其中一種方法,可能是問人借錢。公司借錢方法多,除可透過向銀行借貸等較簡單、成本較低的方法外,另一種方式就是發行債券集資。那麼為何問人借錢,反而有著數?

因為市場資金緊絀,個個不敢考慮投資企業債券,甚至轉投國家級債券,令企業債券價格下跌,這時發行債券的企業向債券持有人話,每借來的1元,將會連本帶利只還0.5元,讓企業減少償還本金,變相帶來利潤。

這種場面近來有漸多的趨勢,且看玖龍紙業(2689)便知,曾被《財富》雜誌選為全球50名最有權力的玖紙主席張茵仍然面對不少經營難題,但上周該集團向其優先票據持有人建議提早贖回,而每持有1,000美元票據本金的投資者,如果肯接納,就可收回530美元和應收利息,代表投資者要以帳面值53%接受收回,帳面失去470美元,由於未償還的本金有2.837億美元,如果投資者齊齊投降,公司只需付1.6億美元,變相賺回1.23億美元(約9.6億港元)!更厲害的是,該批票據於去年4月才發行,但在短短不足1年便贖回,所付利息雖達7.875厘,但融資費用實在有限,反映今趟贖回認真和味。

那麼票據持有人怎會願意大賤賣?一來債券不值錢,像玖紙這批票據,最近每100美元的票據報價,只有30美元,更曾低見25美元,代表如肯交回票據給玖紙,可以多袋20多美元,二來票據持有人即使持有票據直至期滿,也要考慮未來的風險因素。

其實,銀河娛樂(027)於去年底亦向兩批浮息和定息票據持有人提出相同贖回建議,最後有1.7億美元本金額獲贖回,佔建議贖回金額的48.6%,而實際所付金額僅8,635萬美元,足足少付8,635萬美元,即6.7億港元!

上市公司尚且有半價收回,私人公司的場面就更悲壯,如於06年5月從港交所(388)主板私有化的亞洲鋁業便建議,其年息8厘的高級票據持有人,每1,000美元可收回275美元,即要蝕72.5%,而另一批票據每1,000美元本金額的,更只可收回135美元,代表慘輸86.5%。未知是否想嚇退投資者,該公司更講明收益和現金流正下降,如去年下半年銷售跌20%,但成本卻升29%,試問票據持有人怎想呢?

見到城市電訊(1137)也有批貴價優先票據,年息高達8.75厘,亦曾略作回購,如果又用超低價回購,可能好搵過逐家逐戶找人裝寬頻。不過,公司基本因素還有很多,切記要望清楚核心業務表現,以及前景方可下投資決定。

(2月18日刊於《am730》)

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