Tuesday, March 03, 2009

葛霖牧師的美言

滙豐控股(005)終於像東亞銀行(023)般,為包袱做大撇帳,為美洲個人理財業務商譽作撇帳,令北美洲業務稅前虧損高達155億美元(約1,209億港元)。為了填補這個「洞」,故需供股集資1,369億港元,否則其資本實力必遭削弱。

晚上見到滙控股價在倫敦挫兩成,相信港股今日亦會遭受負面影響,畢竟該股佔恒指成分的比重高達15%,粗略按比例計,指數豈不是要再挫3%,以昨日收市報12,317點計,再穿12,000點已非難事,莫非向11,000點進發?

像股神巴菲特一樣,投資失誤無可避免,最重要是能夠盡快止蝕,否則只會蠶食利潤,更嚴重的話,足以拖累健康的業務,只是集團管理層等到此刻才撇帳,禤中怡覺得起碼遲了一年。為甚麼?且看主席葛霖在那份業績報告中的感性之言便知。對於收購Household業務的問題,他話:「我們早在2006年已意識到次按市場恐會面臨崩解,在2007年,當其他同業仍不斷擴展業務之時,我們已經大幅縮減次按貸款業務,亦投放大量資源協助客戶解決資金困難。事實上,當時無人預計到美國經濟和金融市場後來惡化的程度。」

不過,他對銀行業的缺失似乎也感到憤怒:「銀行業的確犯了不少錯誤。我們必須緊記,雖然一般銀行家大多不斷努力為客戶提供優質的服務,但不可否認當中已經有很多人令業界聲譽大受損害。
不少人以不當手法銷售不適當的產品,但薪酬條件之優厚形同失控,而不當的獎勵亦導致人鋌而走險。當中的罪魁禍首卻往往是此制度下的最大得益者,確實引起廣泛的公憤。

這一切都顯示銀行業的文化與操守出了問題—–就是做事的人往往已經不問對錯,只著眼於有沒有違規犯法。銀行業應該重新以正確的動機,來驅動經營手法。」

葛霖這位牧師更深信在商業世界裡,企業文化和道德操守最重要,並話:「如果一間企業的文化並不鼓勵它的人員時刻講求行事端正,不論有多少監管的規則、規例,都不足以杜絕危機再現」。

或許正是這個投資失誤,大家才會興奮地不斷追問:應否入市供股?禤中怡粗略計計,若以12股舊股,停牌前每股值56.95元,再供5股新股,每股約28元,即合共17股股份的平均價就是48.4元。若果股價挫兩成,即約45.56元,再計及供股股份,合共17股的每股平均價就會下調至約40.39元,故此供股與否,其中一個因素就是考慮入市價。當然,股息亦是大家關注的因素,由於今年首3季,每季股息肯定大減55%至8美仙,若果第四季只維持派0.1美元,即全年派0.34美元,約2.65港元。若果以之前參與供股後的每股平均價48.4元計,股息回報率約5.4%,如每股平均價降至約40.39元,股息回報更見6.5%,對比獅子銀行紅簿仔息率還高,但記緊參與股票投資,不要貪息高而忽視市場情況。

(3月3日刊於《am730》)

7 Comments:

At 1:25 AM, Anonymous emrk said...

禤兄,見到你提出葛霖呢番話,我又想起自己之前的留言。

 
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