Tuesday, March 10, 2009

五加八不祥?

回望一周前,在短短5個交易日,滙豐控股(005)股價可以蒸發掉42%!若果看金融海嘯爆發前,股價曾見120元,代表捧場客足足失去72.5%價值,反映基本因素改變,股價就會自行調整。

另一邊廂,電訊盈科(008)主席李澤楷突然鬧人,炮轟傳媒和評論員失實報道,又話私有化若成功,下月中願意同傳媒分享,怎知頭也未回,原來早已找部分傳媒見面,試問怎不教人唏噓,那麼私有化期間,究竟是否要避嫌,定可以高調澄清,抑或隨你喜歡?同朋友談起這兩隻曾是股民的愛股,今日竟然落得如此下場,他們竟然話:「睇編號就知唔得啦!一個5,一個8,咪『唔發』囉!將兩個數字相加,更是『十三不祥』啦!」禤中怡聽完,只有目定口呆!幸好自己並不迷信,但確也笑不出。

其實,再回望一年前,原來還有一周,即本月16日,就是美國金融市場黑色日子的一周年紀念,當日正是美國第五大投資銀行貝爾斯登(Bear Stearns)被主要對手摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)賤價收購的大日子,還記得收購價嗎?每股2美元也,摩通只發行新股支付,免費袋落袋,較出價前兩日貝爾斯登每股30美元折讓達93.3%,令市場譁然!之後一周才加碼至每股10美元的摩通股份。因大幅折讓收購,摩通股價曾見46.06美元,可惜上周五收市價只剩15.56美元,一年間不見66%,但總比花旗(Citigroup)和美國國際集團(AIG)股價為佳。

在華爾街打滾多年的William D. Cohan今日推出新作《House of Cards:A Tale of Hubris and Wretched Excess on Wall Street》,解構當年貝爾斯登走向末路,甚至對華爾街帶來摧毀性結果,繼而蔓延影響全球經濟的原因。見到《Business Week》對該書給予4粒星評級(5粒為滿分),值得期待。著作提到當時貝爾斯登以股本投資方式,參與一個高評級結構性信貸的對沖基金,投資低風險的評級屬AAA或AA級的債務證券如CDO等,主要靠低息貸款買高回報的長期CDO以賺取回報。有多厲害?足足在40個月間,基金從來沒有一個月出現虧損,累積回報更達50%。食髓知味,他們又成立另一個基金,輕易從投資者籌集6億美元(約46.8億港元),而英國巴克萊銀行(Barclays)也願意提供4億美元(約31.2億港元)信貸額度,供兩人用更高槓桿策略作投資,亦成為貝爾斯登主要收入來源之一,因可收取基金所產生利潤的20%,加上所管理資產淨值的2%作費用。

可惜在07年2月該兩個對沖基金虧損,難得當時管理人講大話,向巴克萊發電郵話:「你會很高興知道,我們於2月的表現是歷來最佳月份。」,結果基金續虧損,貝爾斯登索性將基金清盤,將基金內的抵押債務證券孭上身,納入資產負債表內,犯上首個錯誤。之後新CEO上場,卻不集資或找人合併,犯上第二個錯誤,最終走向被賤價吞併,揭開金融海嘯的序幕。

(3月10日刊於《am730》)

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