Wednesday, March 18, 2009

銀行只要一個C

以前銀行風光,放貸生意多之外,銷售產品和幫手做證券買賣等收入也相當和味,而銀行股的股東亦樂於銀行盡做生意,希望增派股息之餘,也可提升股價。

賓架自然有壓力,因為大家分析銀行股時,其中一個因素就是ROE(Return on Equity),就是股本回報率也,即盈利除以股本,如果數字愈高,反映公司管理層利用股東資金經營業務時,賺取盈利的能力便愈強。當然,人人都注意這個比率的話,同業之間難忽視,皆因落後於人,投資者便視為經營不力,分分鐘失去投資者的寵愛。

不過,以往進取的經營手法,碰上一場金融海嘯,特別是去年第四季就難以應付,且看近期多間銀行股盈利跌幅驚人,多少可見為追求回報的同時,平衡風險能力的重要性。經此一役,銀行立刻扭細水喉,造成市場資金緊絀,而且隨時被存戶質疑其生存能力,故今日賓架追求的,已不再是ROE,而是一個C字,即資本(Capital)也。

見到滙豐控股(005)、渣打(2888)和富邦(636)等也曾在市場集資,便知道資本的渴求程度,而不選擇供股的,就要大減股息,希望保留更多現金,並且要收縮放貸業務,藉此增加資本實力,像提升一級資本比率等指標,而唯一目的,無非是增強投資者的信心吧!

不過,若選用供股抽水,難免將會出現攤薄效應,因為股份數目增加,每股盈利也會減少,股息以實際金額計,由於股份數目增加,若果銀行要控制股息派發總額,多少要減低每股股息,意味不供股的話,股息亦可能會受到影響。至於採取減少派息、以及收緊貸款業務藉此增加資本的話,則會因收縮業務,而令盈利受影響。

幸好,金管局已為銀行製造擴闊息差的優厚環境,難怪讓賓架愛死任總。君不見自去年第四季以來,金管局不停向銀行體系注資,提供大量資金,銀行同業拆息已經有顯著回落,近期拆息已經處低水平,如1個月和3個月拆息才不過0.25和0.85厘,銀行拆借資金,用作發展業務的成本便相應下降。同時,金管局向所有本港存戶派定心丸,推出存款保障無上限的絕招,變相令存款維持在銀行體系,存戶亦無謂轉走資金,而且部分銀行存款息只得可憐的0.01厘,意味銀行吸納資金成本相當低,難怪銀行推出拆息按揭計劃,也會有盈利。

銀行已受銷售投資產品空間萎縮,工商貸款亦因工業飽受出口下跌影響,但有賓架朋友話,搶樓按就最穩陣,畢竟有磚頭揸手,而近期更有不少年輕人幫襯,佔客戶比率認真高,由以往才逾10%,大增至逾50%,當然買百多萬元的上車盤為主,兼且多用MIP(Mortgage Insurance Programme),即按揭保險也,用樓價5%做首期,就可入市做業主了。這種趨勢會否持續就未知,只知按揭貸款和按揭保險乃負債,建議大家提升儲蓄,兼且盡快還款,才算是真正能夠享受一個安樂窩啊!

(3月18日刊於《am730》)

6 Comments:

At 2:01 PM, Anonymous 阿四 said...

年輕人比5巴仙首期, 會否成為潛在的港版次按?(當然唔可能爆大鑊, 但呢個sector的放款會否壞賬高?)

另, 兄對內地銀行前景看法如何?

 
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