Wednesday, June 24, 2009

名牌投資者著數多

世界銀行看淡今年經濟,畢竟是國際性組織,大家自然奉若神明,更成為一眾專家為環球股市下挫提供的主要原因,皆因該行預測全球經濟今年將跌2.9%,以及貿易回落10%,反映衰退惡化,但望清楚,明年全球經濟可望反彈2%,2011年更升3.2%。為何走在前頭的股市不當好消息炒,還是純粹找藉口呢?

恒指昨日開市即重重回落482點,之後迅即見17,375點,跌幅擴大至684點,掉頭殺坐隔夜倉的好友,之後繼續在低位徘徊,即使午後略為反彈,但始終無法收窄跌幅,特別是早前熱炒的內銀股最重傷,中國銀行(3988)單日被踢落4.2%至3.41元。

當然,逆市奇葩也不少,且看國美(493)成功復牌,單是炒過去大市累積的反彈而該股卻停牌,故追落後,已讓投資者追捧,而且有股東落疊,相信集團不會受大股東個人問題所影響,難怪開市跟大市略為回落後,股價直線上升,但高位買入的,見到股價升幅隨後收窄,可能又要守一守了。由於成交活躍,大手成交超過1,482宗,成交股數14.76億股,佔總數的76.6%比重,單是掃一球球貨(即100萬股)的,比比皆是,可見機構性投資者落力捧場。

當然,要管理570億美元(約4,446億港元)資產的貝恩肯投資,令國美擁有具份量的股東支持,國美提供的條件當然不太差,貝恩認購國美的可換股債券收年息5厘,換股價1.18元,比停牌前股價還要有折讓,與一般以溢價計算有別,而以昨日收市價1.89元計,貝恩每股帳面已賺0.71元,回報達60%!

名牌效應自然較著數,且看早前對沖基金要落力尋求資金,但《華爾街日報》話有對沖基金卻逆市獲青睞,這個由馬克.斯皮茲納戈爾(Mark Spitznagel)管理的黑天鵝(Black Swan)基金本來並非十分出名,但於去年看中大市走勢,回報以倍數計,使設立該公司Universa Investments LP所管理的資產總額從3億美元急速膨脹至60億美元之多,足足大增19倍,投資者紛紛進貢資金供他們投資。

當然,要保持名牌,就要繼續提供回報方可,那麼他們採取甚麼投資策略?他們認為,美國政府採取大規模經濟刺激措施﹐通脹將來臨,故投資一些期權﹐涉及原油和玉米等大宗商品﹐或是石油鑽探企業或金礦開採企業的股票期權。

此外,該基金還會進行沽空美國國債的投資﹐理由是通貨膨脹出現,將會壓低美國國債的價格,如果預測屬實,他們就可藉此而獲利。投資大師的策略是否奏效,時間可以證明,大家或許可以作為參考,最重要睇自己的承受能力。

值得分享的是,原來有位中國太極大師會前去該公司教武術﹐特別是教導如何借對方之力,來攻擊對方,似乎同對沖基金的特性頗相近,可見中國早已具備超卓的投資技巧,只是未有好好運用,或許中投公司頭頭也要去上太極班了。

(6月24日刊於《am730》)

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