Thursday, July 16, 2009

周一併購狂熱

儘管衰退未過,企業併購活動卻似乎未有停止,兼且太多的金錢去追逐太少的優質資產,自然讓賣方市場享受吊高來賣的感覺。

見到《金融時報》的LEX專欄,做個簡單統計,確又真的是有很多併購活動,更形容是一個Mini-Merger Monday。所謂Merger Monday,這句在華爾街的術語,就是企業多喜歡選擇在周一,即每周首個交易日,宣布最新收購交易,希望股價在隨後的交易日中,藉有關交易消息而刺激向上。

新鮮滾熱辣的例子,就是東方航空(670)建議合併上海航空,消息於本周一曝光後,東航股價已經連升3日,昨日更突破2元,見2.02元收市,單日急升10.9%,比發出盈利預喜的中國國航(753)全日升7.8%更多,而本周以來,東航股價已經累升16%之多。

海外併購活動方面,周一則有日本麒麟(Kirin)欲合併對手三得利(Suntory),擴大其飲料王國版圖,帶動麒麟股價當日逆市升近8%。此外,市場仍醞釀不少併購交易,如美國國際集團(AIG)旗下Alico或與另一保險公司MetLife合併等。

且看Dealogic統計顯示,原來投資者看中獵物時,提出的收購作價,較獵物在出價前一周的股價,即所謂溢價(premium),平均高出27%之多,較05年的21%有所上升。更厲害的是,一旦遇上收購戰,投資者出手的價錢往往更驚人,溢價幅度更可高見37%,比過去3年約29%水平,還要多8個百分點,勢要奪得心頭好。

初看以為是瘋狂大買賣,但看清楚,實際情況是,被人看上眼的企業價錢,經歷金融海嘯洗禮後,已經從高峰滑落不少,基數相對回落,意味部分企業股價於過去一段時間跌得過多,投資者今日即使用高溢價,也只是買入被低估的企業。另一個投資者肯出高溢價原因,可能是優質企業不愁買家,故樂於坐山觀虎鬥,讓各位有興趣的投資者出價爭奪,遲遲不願作決定,等好價才落疊。

在本港購併市場,出現爭奪戰的場面不算多,但溢價投資的也有好例子,就是德國商用車製造商MAN買中國重汽(3808)批舊股,每股作價8.76元,與停牌前股價7.51元比較,足足有16.6%溢價,並拿52億元認購可換股票據,反映MAN想打入內地市場,相信該股今早復牌時,股價有新景象,其他汽車股也要多加注意。

另一個需留意的現象,就是私募基金出手投資蹤影頻現,近期有蒙牛乳業(2319)被中糧集團和私募基金厚樸買入,成為單一大股東,以及貝恩資本斥巨資,入股國美電器(493),都屬大手筆交易,作價甚至有所折讓。

據道瓊斯私募分析員估計,今年上半年共有173隻私募基金籌集549億美元(約4,282億港元),與去年同期多達261隻基金集資1,527億美元(約1.1萬億港元)計,足足跌了64%,但仍有能力獲得新「水」,可見尋寶遊戲會愈來愈熱烈。

(7月16日刊於《am730》)

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