Wednesday, July 29, 2009

向大師致敬

大額集資500多億元人民幣的中國建築A股完成上市使命後,內地股市立即震一震,負面傳聞紛陳,又話收緊新增貸款,又擔心宏觀調控,股民立刻拋貨套現,引發深滬股市曾暴挫7%之多,幅度實在不少。其實,內地政府掌握經濟的話事權,任何政策變動也會構成影響,引致政策取向成為股市的溫度計。就算下半年勒緊新增貸款金額,但上半年流出市場的資金已不菲,確可帶來乘數效應,故對經濟的刺激仍然有巨大影響,料調整過後,可能又再陷新一輪瘋狂狀態。

港股何嘗不是有瘋狂炒作,指數雖回落,有線寬頻(1097)股價卻逆市大彈61%之多,收報1.24元,成交額逾1,140萬元。該集團話想經營免費電視服務,是唯一的炒上藉口,但這個心願早已表明多時,始終要等政府批准,況且做免費電視是否等於必賺,且看亞視便知。

談到政策市,不得不提崇尚自由經濟的大師費利民(Milton Friedman),因為明天就是這位奪得1976年諾貝爾經濟學獎得獎者的97歲冥壽也。在1912年7月31日,他於美國紐約出生,成為家中排名第四和最細的成員,而他提出:「沒有免費午餐」(There’s No Such Thing as a Free Lunch) ,更成為經典名句。

其實,他與我們的距離不遠,因為這位大師於06年11月16日,方離開我們,可惜未能親身經歷這場金融海嘯,兼且無法作出反擊,因為他的自由派學說備受攻擊,甚至被認為這種放任態度遺禍巨大,如監管金融機構尺度太寬鬆,引致次按風暴和毒資產等問題,甚至建議應檢討他的思想云云。不過,費利民提倡政府規模愈小愈好,市場愈自由,發揮的效能愈大的理論,相信不容抹殺他對經濟發展的貢獻。

他與中國和香港也頗有關係,因拍攝《自由的選擇》(Free to Choose)電視劇集,由1978年3月開始,歷時8個月時間,橫跨美國外,更遠道來香港,還有日本和英國等,之後更出版《自由的選擇》,更被翻譯成14種不同語言的版本。他曾話最矚目的旅程,就是在1980年起,三度前往內地,體現規劃經濟走向自由經濟的歷程。

還記得他於06年10月初,就特首曾蔭權指「積極不干預」政策不復存在,特別在《華爾街日報》撰文,批評「香港錯了」(Hong Kong Wrong),又以「悲哀」形容此事。他又指,「積極不干預」制度夭折,香港「將不再是自由經濟的閃亮象徵了」。另人惋惜的是,隨後一個月,他便離開這個世界。

題外話,今日是《am730》出版四周年的大日子,禤中怡先恭祝生日快樂,祝願讀者你們繼續捧場。做免費報章頗吃力,尤其在炎熱的夏季裡派報紙,汗流浹背。禤中怡想趁此機會多謝派報員未有浪費編採的努力,曾遇到派報員向一名讀者話:「你攞咗囉喎,俾其他人攞啦!」如果早點派完報紙,不是可以早點下班嗎?難得那位派報員能如此珍惜,值得稱讚。

(7月30日刊於《am730》)

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