Tuesday, August 04, 2009

熱錢驅寒冬?

踏入8月,又是本港上市公司公布中期業績旺季,恒隆地產(101)上周已率先揭開藍籌股派成績表序幕,雖然全年純利倒退69%,但賣樓收入少,屬市場預期之內,扣除投資物業重估部分,實際跌53%,派息總額無變,而負債比率僅3%,相信仍有力出擊增購土地儲備,但該股昨日卻逆市反跌0.3%至28.3元。

昨日主角當然是滙豐控股(005)和恒生銀行(011)派中期成績表,大笨象主席葛牧師以往在倫敦總部坐鎮,用視像會議同本港股東見面,然後於翌日才來港再解畫,而今次他卻親自現身。至於梁高美懿坐正恒生高位後,亦是首次公布業績,認真特別。

滙控有盈利,皆因供股行動的技術性支出不用入帳,相信同核數師傾妥,儘管對比去年同期,純利大跌56%,但比去年下半年虧損已有改善,市場將視為正面訊息,為股市打強心針,且看今日恒指會否被大笨象拖上再走高。

那麼本港上市公司中期表現會如何呢?且看日興證券(Nikko)統計已公布業績的日本上市公司,或許有借鑑作用,統計發現,在401間已公布業績的企業中,整體純利於4至6月為1.03萬億日圓(約843億港元),扭轉首季虧損2.19萬億日圓(約1,792億港元)情況。儘管4至6月的表現與去年同期比較,依然大挫逾70%,但始終有錢賺,有助改善財務狀況。

不過,統計又發現,有關企業整體銷售額下跌10.7%,反映企業的業績能夠好轉,並不一定因為生意好轉所帶動,而是早前削減成本措施或奏效,加上市場環境改善亦幫一把而已。這些上市公司約佔整體1,360間上市公司的30%,包括有汽車、電子和金融業。

若果按個別行業的經營表現來看,電子產品、運輸設備和機械生產商的虧損有所收窄,銀行、證券商和零售商均擺脫「見紅」,重獲盈利,化工和電訊公司盈利續增,但鋼鐵商虧損則續擴大。

另一亞洲經濟強國南韓,外界也憧憬見V型反彈,當地最大20間企業包括三星和SK等,於4至6月的銷售額便較首季增長11.3%。氣氛好轉,海外投資者早已湧入南韓股市,第二季投資證券總額創新高,見180億美元(約1,404億港元),比首季足足大增24倍之多。
這種趨勢似乎未變,據當地交易所統計顯示,7月海外投資者淨買入的股票總值5.94萬億韓圜(約374億港元),為自98年開始有統計以來,單月最大投資額!比台灣和印度分別獲海外投資者入市的202億和148億港元還多,但有誰記得,去年下半年,海外投資者一口氣抽走了多達353億美元(約2,753億港元)。

當然,新興市場風險較高,回報自然有機會提升,但資金瘋狂湧入各地,多國股市指數已重回或迫近金融海嘯前水平,效果盡顯,兼且令氣氛全面改觀,但真的能齊齊走單邊?

(8月4日刊於《am730》)

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