Wednesday, August 12, 2009

染紅染藍大競猜

中國人民銀行話,7月新增貸款3,559億元人民幣,比6月的1.53萬億元人民幣,顯著回落多達76%,數字早在預期之內,最重要是,貸款額金額依然龐大,而今年首7個月,金融機構的新增人民幣貸款高達7.73萬億元人民幣,同比多增4.89萬億元人民幣,反映中央放水根本未見手軟,即使下半年要收緊些少貸款,亦實屬正常,畢竟效應需時發揮,而且繼續有通縮,若日後真的續大開水喉救市,仍然有空間讓通脹泡沫膨脹。當然,統計裡的「水分」有多少,大家要自行調節了。

港股就表演應調整不調整的低位抽上劇情,先讓近期炒回歸內地上市概念的滙豐控股(005)和中國移動(941)喘氣,由內銀股繼續炒上,支持恒指一口氣衝破21,000點,兼且能夠企在21,074點收市,雖然只漲144點,但20天平均線也拉高至20,000點附近,反映交易區域又升高了,難怪同證券界朋友談起時,他也要宣布投降,不敢再估頂了,畢竟錢太多也。

不估頂也有其他選擇。由於恒生指數有限公司本周五又再檢討成分股組合變化,又引發新一輪競猜遊戲。見到野村繼高盛後,又再估計那些上市公司能夠染色,其中華潤置地(1109)成為熱門人馬之一,經野村一提,該股股價連升兩日,昨升1.39%至17.44元,成交額達1.86億元。由於在華潤系內,華潤創業(291)早已成藍籌,而華潤電力(836)方於6月初才染藍,若連華潤置地也能成功加入恒指成分股這個大家庭,華潤系豈不是一門三傑?實行與由李嘉誠領導的長實(001)、和黃(013)及港燈(006)的長和系分庭抗禮。

另一隻獲選入圍熱門的,就是百麗(1880),因恒指多由地產和金融類股份所組成,令這隻零售股有機會成為像恒指中的一道清流,而現時僅思捷環球(330)屬純零售股。

百麗昨日便一口氣大漲7.9%至8元,距離1年新高的8.48元不遠,而成交額逾1.86億元,交投不少,市值亦已增至達674億元,規模確實不少,與傳聞被剔走的中遠太平洋(1199)市值僅293億元作比較,百麗無疑勝一籌。

此外,獲美國股神巴菲特入股的比亞迪(1211),亦有機會被揀為加入國企指數成分股,觸發該股昨日漲3元,升幅達6.6%,見48元收市,正不斷挑戰新高。
能夠成為恒指成分股,確可有與眾不同的待遇,例如指數基金需調整投資組合的成分,需買入新加入的成分股,藉此追蹤與指數相若的走勢,而其他港股基金的基金經理也要考慮換碼,否則跑輸大市指標,豈不遭客戶鬧!不過,恒生指數有限公司檢討後,不一定會作出任何變化,很容易讓投資者失望,而且這種先炒未來的做法,亦有一定風險,故此追入博中獎的公司能夠成功染色時,也應要制定萬一好夢落空時的投資策略,因為焦點股隨時轉換,他日股份交投轉靜,要脫手便可能有所損失。

(8月12日刊於《am730》)

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