Monday, August 24, 2009

淡風繼續吹

美國數據話好,當地股市上周五見9個月新高後,亞洲區股市衝天飛,日股漲3.3%見10,581點,台灣加權指數升2.7%,新加坡海峽時報指數也上揚2.6%,而南韓綜合升1.9%,恒指只增1.6%至20,535點,相對算失色。

上海證券綜合指數曾破3,000點,最終僅收2,993點,升1.1%,大家又找原因,其中企業業績勝預期屬利好因素之一。望望《上海證券報》所做統計,截至上周六,深滬兩市共有1,057間上市公司公布了半年業績,合共淨利潤2,495億元人民幣,比去年同期下降10.69%,當中獲得盈利的公司佔852間,虧損則佔205間,虧損佔整體約19.39%比重。

若果以第二季業績與第一季業績作比較,當中共涉1,048間公司可作比較,第二季度共計淨利潤1,365.4億元人民幣,比第一季度的1,107.61億元人民幣上升23%。需注意的是,上周有些重磅藍籌表現佔整體比重較大,如只計截至本月17日共626間公司所交出來的成績,原來第二季度淨利潤比第一季增幅達70%,反映第二季在政府刺激經濟措施帶來的利好因素,如中國石化(386)指中期賺332.4億元人民幣,急速攀升3.3倍,拆開看,第二季盈利220.2億元人民幣,比首季多賺高達96%。

不過,大家又開始擔心金融海嘯第二波的來臨,首先是有「新末日博士」之稱的紐約大學商學院教授魯賓尼(Nouriel Roubini),在英國《金融時報》撰文指,政府實施量化貨幣與財政刺激措施,日後採取如何退出策略將面對不同風險,如處理不當,或將引致全球經濟出現「W」型衰退走勢。他憂慮如政府採取加稅等方式,減低之前為救市而大增的財政赤字,恐怕會打殘復甦中的經濟,兼且出現歐美政府最驚的通縮情況,引發滯縮(stag-deflation),但如維持龐大財赤,通脹勢增,又現滯脹(stagflation),總之行錯一步都會影響全局。

當然,風險不能不理,巧合的是,《華爾街日報》昨日也吹淡風,找來3位曾經於3月左右話股市見底,叫人買貨的財經專家,成功看中這股升浪後,今日對後市有何睇法,他們原來都不怎麼樂觀。

像波士頓資產管理公司GMO董事長的格蘭瑟姆(Jeremy Grantham)曾於3月話恐慌時投資,當時美國股市被低估了30%,但今日標準普爾500指數目前已超過其合理價值,即880點左右水平。早於2月底已叫客買貨的MKM Partners首席經濟學家米高達達(Michael Darda)雖對明年股市前景持樂觀態度,但2010年後,能否續維持上漲的能力則持懷疑態度。

目前任加拿大網絡投資社區Agoracom首席評論員的格蘭迪奇(Peter Grandich)料道指後市可能會在10,500點遇阻力。難得的是,他話作為看水晶球過活的人,已經習慣睇錯市,眼鏡碎滿地,懂得吞下這些玻璃碎了。當然,大家作為參考,贏輸始終靠自己。

(8月25日刊於《am730》)

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