Thursday, September 03, 2009

揭真定露假

見到劉天王連日來被婚事所煩擾,可見做藝人怕不獲力捧,甚至欠曝光,成名後,又驚狗仔隊日夜「招呼」,連一些小事也被追問到底,認真矛盾。

有趣的是,劉天王慘遭圍攻期間,同他有密切關係的東亞唱片,差不多在相若時間內,被人「發掘」到旗下兩名歌手楊千嬅,以及黎明,原來亦已經與另一半共諧連理,結婚去也,一時間,報章被這些婚訊所淹蓋,更佔據多日娛樂版的頭條。

由於有這些「更加新」的新聞,劉天王的新聞相對縮減,讓其降溫。究竟是有心人的危機管理,利用其他新聞將大眾視線轉移,減低其衝擊,抑或是傳媒真的如此神通廣大?

應用在財經新聞時,也可能面對「接近消息人士」、「相關人士」的放料,有時也會遇上真真假假的場面,若果投資者早前看《上海證券報》於8月29日的報道,引述「發改委有關人士」,提到「在當前工業經濟企穩回升的關鍵時期,發改委將盡量減少成品油調價頻率,這一做法也並不違背現行定價機制的原則」。

「發改委有關人士」更話,規定是說「可相應調整」,而並非「必須」調整,兼話「如果緊跟國際油價,不但國內消費增加無謂的開支,頻繁變動的油價還會給宏觀經濟增加更多的不確定因素」,相信這訊息或會使投資者以為內地加油價無望,繼而選擇參與於周一開市時,便拋售中國石化(386)和中國石油(857),引致中國石化A股就跌停板,當時真的以為自己的決定實屬明智,因為人人都賣嘛!

怎知發改委於8月31日高調澄清,話無接受過《上海證券報》和其他媒體就關於油價的採訪,更指有關報道並不屬實。發改委更於昨日公布今年第四度加油價,究竟是要打破謠言,還是真的有需要?

其實,今年以來,油價已經上落起伏6次,4次加價、兩次減價,發改委話,是次加價是考慮國際市場原油價格連續22個工作日移動平均價格已超過4%,需按成品油價格機制上調內地成品油價,況且大家目前並不太擔心通脹問題,自然趁勢加油價,而中國石化早前已接近哭著話,原油加工成本已接近成品油價,暗示再不加價,煉油業務又要再陷虧本局面了。

難得的是,中國石化於8月23日才公布了一份中期純利大增3倍的亮麗業績,本來是好消息,但這種報道卻代表不加油價,將會直接損害有關石油集團的盈利能力,變成負面消息,更為淡友製造機會。由於事情起伏太大,內地監管機構實在需要查證,所謂「發改委有關人士」是真有其人,抑或如發改委所言,無接受過採訪。

有得加油價,油股卻未見特別醒神,中國石化H股昨僅逆市升0.7%至6.59元,而其A股開高後,只能收11.31元人民幣,無升跌。至於本港上市的中國石油更跌1.7%至8.51元。

(9月3日刊於《am730》)

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