Thursday, August 27, 2009

現金流自由至上

銀行做生意十分積極,禤中怡近期頻頻收到信用卡現金套現計劃推介的電話,兼且發覺自己的「信用」升級,因為大銀行寄來度身訂造的新一份私人貸款,所獲預先批核貸款額比上一個月竟然大幅增加高達23%之多,兼送現金獎賞,更不用提交入息證明,總之只要肯申請,手續易過借火。

禤中怡並非想炫耀有能力借錢,相反是擔心自己的自制能力,畢竟銀行水浸,息口又低企,年息甚至有機會低見5.14厘,只要肯鑽研,隨時找到一些回報比該借貸息率為高的回報,屆時便可用他人的錢去獲利,正如用孖展炒股票般,但事實是否如此簡單呢?

當然有難度,因為股市有上有落,萬一買入的股票價格回落,即使蝕住走,也要兼顧利息支出,意味蝕兩邊,若果能夠預早考慮每月流入的現金作計算,足以償還利息及每月攤還本金等,仍可勉強捱過去,但市場變化之快,能早作應變又是一門學問。

很多時聽到上市公司談到自己的free cash flow,即自由現金流,其實是衡量公司本身可供運用現金的能力,而計算方法之一是,經營流入的現金減去所有支出,以及所需必要投資後,可供運用的現金水平。可知道自由現金流對一間公司相當重要,萬一碰上類似金融海嘯的環境時,手上的資源就是救命草了,因為銀行收遮,信貸縮減的同時,客戶延遲還款,卻偏偏要向供應商找數的話,就分分鐘會出現周轉不靈的危機,且看泰林的下場便知了。

應用到個人時,就是每月薪酬減去家用、食、住、行等必要支出後所剩餘的資金。可惜,禤中怡近來身邊的朋友也呻弟弟妹妹出現周轉不靈的情況,因為債務高,償還能力有限,已邁向破產邊緣,究其原因,就是使錢過度,利用信用卡購買新穎科技產品,奈何這些玩意並非生財工具,不能提供現金流入,當這些玩意兒愈來愈多,自由現金流不但耗盡,甚至達到無法承擔的地步。銀行見到貸款客戶的財務狀況如此嚴峻,依然樂於貸款,可能是客戶每月還最低還款額,當然樂於賺取豐厚的利息。

面對這種場面,禤中怡多建議進行債務重組,並且找社工協助,而情況太惡劣的話,申請破產解決或較佳。很多人以為破產四年後,當破產令解除便又是一條好漢,可惜有些東西難以挽回。

聽到資深保險界朋友講,有保險客戶份單突然surrender,並非投降,其實是代表退保也!原來客戶破產,份投資相連保單內,滾存一定價值的投資結餘,破產時也要向債權銀行作披露,而債主當然不放過這個機會,自行向保險公司申請退保,將戶口內的資金提走還債也,意味客戶手頭份保障也少了,而朋友亦莫奈何。

見到金管局任總準備離場,頭頭位置將由陳總管掌舵,希望新人事新作風,想想有否方法,避免更多年輕債仔湧現。

(8月27日刊於《am730》)

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